Development of influenza-associated disease burden pyramid in Shanghai, China, 2010-2017: a Bayesian modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Negative estimates can be produced when statistical modelling techniques are applied to estimate morbidity and mortality attributable to influenza. Based on the prior knowledge that influenza viruses are hazardous pathogens and have adverse health outcomes of respiratory and circulatory disease (R&C), we developed an improved model incorporating Bayes' theorem to estimate the disease burden of influenza in Shanghai, China, from 2010 to 2017.

Design

A modelling study using aggregated data from administrative systems on weekly R&C mortality and hospitalisation, influenza surveillance and meteorological data. We constrained the regression coefficients for influenza activity to be positive by truncating the prior distributions at zero.

Setting

Shanghai, China.<

SUBMITTER: Li J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8438833 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature