Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Nina.

ABSTRACT: The austral spring climate of 2020 was characterised by the occurrence of La Niña, which is the most predictable climate driver of Australian springtime rainfall. Consistent with this La Niña, the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast system, ACCESS-S1, made highly confident predictions of wetter-than-normal conditions over central and eastern Australia for spring when initialised in July 2020 and thereafter. However, many areas of Australia received near average to severely below average rainfall, particularly during November. Possible causes of the deviation of rainfall from its historical response to La Niña and causes of the forecast error are explored with observational and reanalysis data for the period 1979-2020 and real-time forecasts of ACCESS-S1 init

SUBMITTER: Lim EP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8445951 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature