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Early outcome detection for COVID-19 patients.

ABSTRACT: With the outbreak of COVID-19 exerting a strong pressure on hospitals and health facilities, clinical decision support systems based on predictive models can help to effectively improve the management of the pandemic. We present a method for predicting mortality for COVID-19 patients. Starting from a large number of clinical variables, we select six of them with largest predictive power, using a feature selection method based on genetic algorithms and starting from a set of COVID-19 patients from the first wave. The algorithm is designed to reduce the impact of missing values in the set of variables measured, and consider only variables that show good accuracy on validation data. The final predictive model provides accuracy larger than 85% on test data, including a new patient cohort from the second COVID-19 wave, and on patients with imputed missing values. The selected clinical variables are confirmed to be relevant by recent literature on COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Sirbu A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8446000 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early outcome detection for COVID-19 patients.

Sîrbu Alina A Barbieri Greta G Faita Francesco F Ferragina Paolo P Gargani Luna L Ghiadoni Lorenzo L Priami Corrado C

Scientific reports 20210916 1

With the outbreak of COVID-19 exerting a strong pressure on hospitals and health facilities, clinical decision support systems based on predictive models can help to effectively improve the management of the pandemic. We present a method for predicting mortality for COVID-19 patients. Starting from a large number of clinical variables, we select six of them with largest predictive power, using a feature selection method based on genetic algorithms and starting from a set of COVID-19 patients fro ...[more]

PMID: 34531473

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Project description:Background/aimDespite the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic has been going on for over 5 months, there is yet to be a standard management policy for all patients including those with mild-to-moderate cases. We evaluated the role of early hospitalization in combination with early antiviral therapy with COVID-19 patients in a tertiary care university hospital.Materials and methodsThis was a prospective, observational, single-center study on probable/confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a tertiary care hospital on COVID-19 wards between March 20 and April 30, 2020. The demographic, laboratory, and clinical data were collected.ResultsWe included 174 consecutive probable/confirmed COVID-19 adult patients hospitalized in the Internal Medicine wards of the University Adult Hospital between March 20 and April 30, 2020. The median age was 45.5 (19–92) years and 91 patients (52.3%) were male. One hundred and twenty (69%) were confirmed microbiologically, 41 (23.5%) were radiologically diagnosed, and 13 (7.5%) were clinically suspected (negative microbiological and radiological findings compatible with COVID-19); 35 (20.1%) had mild, 107 (61.5%) moderate disease, and 32 (18.4%) had severe pneumonia. Out of 171 cases, 130 (74.3%) showed pneumonia; 80 were typical, and 50 showed indeterminate infiltration for COVID-19. Patients were admitted within a median of 3 days (0-14 days) after symptoms appear. The median duration of hospitalization was 4 days (0-28 days). In this case series, 13.2% patients were treated with hydroxychloroquine alone, 64.9% with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 18.4% with regimens including favipiravir. A total of 15 patients (8.5%) were transferred to the ICU. Four patients died (2.2%).ConclusionIn our series, 174 patients were admitted to the hospital wards for COVID-19, 69% were confirmed with PCR and/or antibody test. At the time of admission, nearly one fifth of the patients had severe diseases. Of the patients, 95.4% received hydroxychloroquine alone or in combination. The overall case fatality rate was 2.2%.

Project description:Background: Since the Covid-19 global pandemic emerged, developing countries have been facing multiple challenges over its diagnosis. We aimed to establish a relationship between the signs and symptoms of COVID-19 for early detection and assessment to reduce the transmission rate of SARS-Cov-2. Methods: We collected published data on the clinical features of Covid-19 retrospectively and categorized them into physical and blood biomarkers. Common features were assigned scores by the Borg scoring method with slight modifications and were incorporated into a newly-developed Hashmi-Asif Covid-19 assessment Chart. Correlations between signs and symptoms with the development of Covid-19 was assessed by Pearson correlation and Spearman Correlation coefficient (rho). Linear regression analysis was employed to assess the highest correlating features. The frequency of signs and symptoms in developing Covid-19 was assessed through Chi-square test two tailed with Cramer's V strength. Changes in signs and symptoms were incorporated into a chart that consisted of four tiers representing disease stages. Results: Data from 10,172 Covid-19 laboratory confirmed cases showed a correlation with Fever in 43.9% (P = 0.000) cases, cough 54.08% and dry mucus 25.68% equally significant (P = 0.000), Hyperemic pharyngeal mucus membrane 17.92% (P = 0.005), leukopenia 28.11% (P = 0.000), lymphopenia 64.35% (P = 0.000), thrombopenia 35.49% (P = 0.000), elevated Alanine aminotransferase 50.02% (P = 0.000), and Aspartate aminotransferase 34.49% (P = 0.000). The chart exhibited a maximum scoring of 39. Normal tier scoring was ? 12/39, mild state scoring was 13-22/39, and star values scoring was ?7/15; this latter category on the chart means Covid-19 is progressing and quarantine should be adopted. Moderate stage scored 23-33 and severe scored 34-39 in the chart. Conclusion: The Hashmi-Asif Covid-19 Chart is significant in assessing subclinical and clinical stages of Covid-19 to reduce the transmission rate.

Project description:IntroductionSince the start of the COVID-19 pandemic 2019, quite a few patients became critical and needed ICU admission with ventilator assistance. Tracheostomy, which was initially performed late during the course of patient on ventilator, has now been considered a procedure that can be performed relatively early as this leads to early weaning of patients and overcomes the shortage of critical beds.ObjectiveThis study aims to focus on the outcomes of tracheotomised COVID-19 patients in terms of survival and any tracheostomy related morbidity.MethodsA prospective study was performed on COVID-19 patients undergoing tracheostomy at this tertiary care teaching hospital, which also was a dedicated centre for treating COVID-19 patients. The duration of this study was from April 2020 to September 2021. Following tracheostomy, all patients were followed up regularly and clinical changes were recorded. Points that were specifically noted were timing of the tracheostomy, change in ventilator settings, tracheostomy related complications, requirement of oxygen, days needed to wean the patient, decanulation, and, if death, the cause of death.ResultsA total of 136 surgical open tracheostomies were performed on COVID-19 patients over the study period. The mean duration of intubation (timing of tracheostomy) was 12 days. A total of 73 out of 136 (53.6%) patients survived. 51 patients (37.5%) got decannulated during the course of the hospital stay. 9 patients were decanulated during the follow up visits and 13 patients were lost to follow up. 63 out of 136 (46.3%) patients died due to COVID pneumonia. Most of the patients who died had gone into multi-organ failure. Air leak syndromes (pneumothorax and pneumomediastinum) were common findings. 10 patients already had surgical emphysema before taking up for tracheostomy and 6 developed 2-3 days after tracheostomy. The most common complication was bleeding, which was seen in 28 out of 136 patients. The Median weaning of period of patients who survived was 5 days.ConclusionPerforming tracheostomy early in COVID-19 patients helps in early weaning of the patient from the ventilator and makes nursing care easier and increases the availability of ICU beds. The mortality rate was 46% amongst the 136 tracheostomies done in COVID-19 patients. Local site bleeding was the most common complication and surgical emphysema was also seen more than routine tracheostomies.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12070-022-03248-1.

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Early outcome detection for COVID-19 patients.

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Early outcome detection for COVID-19 patients.

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