Optimal Reopening Pathways With COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout and Emerging Variants of Concern.

ABSTRACT: We developed a stochastic optimization technology based on a COVID-19 transmission dynamics model to determine optimal pathways from lockdown toward reopening with different scales and speeds of mass vaccine rollout in order to maximize social economical activities while not overwhelming the health system capacity in general, hospitalization beds, and intensive care units in particular. We used the Province of Ontario, Canada as a case study to demonstrate the methodology and the optimal decision trees; but our method and algorithm are generic and can be adapted to other settings. Our model framework and optimization strategies take into account the likely range of social contacts during different phases of a gradual reopening process and consider the uncertainties of these contact rates d

SUBMITTER: Xiao Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8452896 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature