Verification of the accuracy of the SIR model in forecasting based on the improved SIR model with a constant ratio of recovery to infection rate by comparing with monitored second wave data.

ABSTRACT: The temporal evolution of second and subsequent waves of epidemics such as Covid-19 is investigated. Analytic expressions for the peak time and asymptotic behaviours, early doubling time, late half decay time, and a half-early peak law, characterizing the dynamical evolution of number of cases and fatalities, are derived, where the pandemic evolution exhibiting multiple waves is described by the semi-time SIR model. The asymmetry of the epidemic wave and its exponential tail are affected by the initial conditions, a feature that has no analogue in the all-time SIR model. Our analysis reveals that the immunity is very strongly increasing in several countries during the second Covid-19 wave. Wave-specific SIR parameters describing infection and recovery rates we find to behave in a similar f

SUBMITTER: Kroger M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8456141 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature