COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty regimes affect commodity market volatility.

ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the switching effect of COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty on commodity prices. We employ Markov regime-switching dynamic model to explore price regime dynamics of eight widely traded commodities namely oil, natural gas, corn, soybeans, silver, gold, copper, and steel. We fit two Markov switching regimes to allow parameters to respond to both low and high volatilities. The empirical evidence shows oil, natural gas, corn, soybean, silver, gold, copper, and steel returns adjust to shocks in COVID-19 outcomes and economic policy uncertainty at varying degrees--in both low volatility and high volatility regimes. In contrast, oil and natural gas do not respond to changes in COVID-19 deaths in both regimes. The findings show most commodities are responsive

SUBMITTER: Ahmed MY 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8459197 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature