Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: The complexities involved in modelling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 has been a roadblock in achieving predictability in the spread and containment of the disease. In addition to understanding the modes of transmission, the effectiveness of the mitigation methods also needs to be built into any effective model for making such predictions. We show that such complexities can be circumvented by appealing to scaling principles which lead to the emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of the disease. The ensuing data collapse renders the transmission dynamics largely independent of geopolitical variations, the effectiveness of various mitigation strategies, population demographics, etc. We propose a simple two-parameter model-the Blue Sky model-and show that one class of

SUBMITTER: Paul A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8460722 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature