Inferring a cause-effect relationship between lockdown restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic trend during the first wave.

ABSTRACT: The large number of infected persons due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the need of hospital care for many of them induced the majority of world governments to implement lockdown measures. We developed an analytical model to evaluate the trend of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This model was applied to the first four months of the epidemiological data of the most affected countries in Europe and Russia, in order to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on the epidemic curves during the first wave. According to our model, the difference between the beginning of the lockdown and the slope change of the curve representing the daily distribution of counts was: Germany and Spain 6 days, France 7 days, the United Kingdom 9 days, Italy 21 days, and Russia 30 days. On the basis of these results, we infer a

SUBMITTER: Megna R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8461269 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature