Modelling bluetongue risk in Kazakhstan.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Bluetongue is a serious disease of ruminants caused by the bluetongue virus (BTV). BTV is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). Serological evidence from livestock and the presence of at least one competent vector species of Culicoides suggests that transmission of BTV is possible and may have occurred in Kazakhstan.

Methods

We estimated the risk of transmission using a mathematical model of the reproduction number R₀ for bluetongue. This model depends on livestock density and climatic factors which affect vector density. Data on climate and livestock numbers from the 2466 local communities were used. This, together with previously published model parameters, was used to estimate R₀ for each month of the year. We plotted the results

SUBMITTER: Abdrakhmanov SK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8465711 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature