A Framework for Weather-Driven Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics in Different Brazilian Regions.

ABSTRACT: This study investigated a model to assess the role of climate fluctuations on dengue (DENV) dynamics from 2010 to 2019 in four Brazilian municipalities. The proposed transmission model was based on a preexisting SEI-SIR model, but also incorporates the vector vertical transmission and the vector's egg compartment, thus allowing rainfall to be introduced to modulate egg-hatching. Temperature and rainfall satellite data throughout the decade were used as climatic model inputs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the role of each parameter. The model-simulated scenario was compared to the observed dengue incidence and the findings indicate that the model was able to capture the observed seasonal dengue incidence pattern with good accuracy until 2016, although higher deviations

SUBMITTER: Alves LD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8466780 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature