Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness.

ABSTRACT: The relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness is poorly known. Using data from a cohort of cases and high-risk contacts, we reconstructed viral load at the time of contact and inferred the probability of infection. The effect of viral load was larger in household contacts than in non-household contacts, with a transmission probability as large as 48% when the viral load was greater than 10¹⁰ copies per mL. The transmission probability peaked at symptom onset, with a mean probability of transmission of 29%, with large individual variations. The model also projects the effects of variants on disease transmission. Based on the current knowledge that viral load is increased by two- to eightfold with variants of concern and assuming no changes in the pattern of co

SUBMITTER: Marc A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8476126 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature