Effect of Adjustment for Case Misclassification and Infection Date Uncertainty on Estimates of COVID-19 Effective Reproduction Number.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Surveillance data captured during the COVID-19 pandemic may not be optimal to inform a public health response, because it is biased by imperfect test accuracy, differential access to testing, and uncertainty in date of infection.

Methods

We downloaded COVID-19 time-series surveillance data from the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment by report and illness onset dates for 9 March 2020 to 30 September 2020. We used existing Bayesian methods to first adjust for misclassification in testing and surveillance, followed by deconvolution of date of infection. We propagated forward uncertainty from each step corresponding to 10,000 posterior time-series of doubly adjusted epidemic curves. The effective reproduction number (Rt), a parameter of principal inter

SUBMITTER: Goldstein ND 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8478862 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature