Impact of COVID-19 social distancing measures on future incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales: a mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

In January 2020, the UK moved to a 1+1 schedule for the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) with a single priming dose at 3-month and a 12-month booster. We modelled the impact on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) out to 2030/2031 of reductions in PCV13 coverage and population mixing associated with restrictions on non-essential healthcare visits and social distancing measures introduced in 2020/2021 to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Design

Using an existing model of pneumococcal transmission in England and Wales, we simulated the impact of a 40% reduction in coverage and a 40% reduction in mixing between and within age groups during two lockdowns in spring 2020 and autumn/winter 2020/2021. More and less extreme reductions in coverage and mixing we

SUBMITTER: Choi YH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8479589 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature