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Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys.

ABSTRACT: Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measures over time are the net effect of increases due to recent transmission and decreases due to antibody waning. Here, we present a new method that combines multiple datasets (serology, mortality, and virus positivity ratios) to estimate seroreversion time and infection fatality ratios (IFR) and simultaneously infer population exposure levels. The results indicate that the average time to seroreversion is around six months, IFR is 0.54% to 1.3%, and true exposure may be more than double the current seroprevalence levels reported for several regions of England.

SUBMITTER: Chen S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8483393 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys.

Chen Siyu S Flegg Jennifer A JA White Lisa J LJ Aguas Ricardo R

PLoS computational biology 20210920 9

Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measur ...[more]

PMID: 34543264

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Project description:SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys provide critical information to assess the burden of COVID-19, describe population immunity, and guide public health strategies. Early in the pandemic, most of these surveys were conducted within high-income countries, leaving significant knowledge gaps in low-and middle-income (LMI) countries. To address this gap, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is supporting serosurveys internationally. We conducted a descriptive analysis of international serosurveys supported by CDC during May 12, 2020-February 28, 2022, using an internal tracker including data on the type of assistance provided, study design, population surveyed, laboratory testing performed, and status of implementation. Since the beginning of the pandemic, CDC has supported 72 serosurveys (77 serosurvey rounds) in 35 LMI countries by providing technical assistance (TA) on epidemiologic, statistical, and laboratory methods, financial assistance (FA), or both. Among these serosurvey rounds, the majority (61%) received both TA and FA from CDC, 30% received TA only, 3% received only FA, and 5% were part of informal reviews. Fifty-four percent of these serosurveys target the general population, 13% sample pregnant women, 7% sample healthcare workers, 7% sample other special populations (internally displaced persons, patients, students, and people living with HIV), and 18% assess multiple or other populations. These studies are in different stages of implementation, ranging from protocol development to dissemination of results. They are conducted under the leadership of local governments, who have ownership over the data, in collaboration with international partners. Thirty-four surveys rounds have completed data collection. CDC TA and FA of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys will enhance the knowledge of the COVID-19 pandemic in almost three dozen LMI countries. Support for these surveys should account for current limitations with interpreting results, focusing efforts on prospective cohorts, identifying, and forecasting disease patterns over time, and helping understand antibody kinetics and correlates of protection.

Dataset Information

Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys.

Publications

Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys.

Similar Datasets

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