Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data.

ABSTRACT: We present a compartmental extended SEIQRD metapopulation model for SARS-CoV-2 spread in Belgium. We demonstrate the robustness of the calibration procedure by calibrating the model using incrementally larger datasets and dissect the model results by computing the effective reproduction number at home, in workplaces, in schools, and during leisure activities. We find that schools and home contacts are important transmission pathways for SARS-CoV-2 under lockdown measures. School reopening has the potential to increase the effective reproduction number from R_e=0.66±0.04 (95 % CI) to R_e=1.09±0.05 (95 % CI) under lockdown measures. The model accounts for the main characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease and features a detailed representation of hos

SUBMITTER: Alleman TW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8487325 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature