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Model-driven mitigation measures for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Reopening schools is an urgent priority as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on. To explore the risks associated with returning to in-person learning and the value of mitigation measures, we developed stochastic, network-based models of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in primary and secondary schools. We find that a number of mitigation measures, alone or in concert, may reduce risk to acceptable levels. Student cohorting, in which students are divided into two separate populations that attend in-person classes on alternating schedules, can reduce both the likelihood and the size of outbreaks. Proactive testing of teachers and staff can help catch introductions early, before they spread widely through the school. In secondary schools, where the students are more susceptible to infection and have different patterns of social interaction, control is more difficult. Especially in these settings, planners should also consider testing students once or twice weekly. Vaccinating teachers and staff protects these individuals and may have a protective effect on students as well. Other mitigations, including mask wearing, social distancing, and increased ventilation, remain a crucial component of any reopening plan.

SUBMITTER: McGee RS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8488607 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Model-driven mitigation measures for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic.

McGee Ryan Seamus RS Homburger Julian R JR Williams Hannah E HE Bergstrom Carl T CT Zhou Alicia Y AY

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20210901 39

Reopening schools is an urgent priority as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on. To explore the risks associated with returning to in-person learning and the value of mitigation measures, we developed stochastic, network-based models of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in primary and secondary schools. We find that a number of mitigation measures, alone or in concert, may reduce risk to acceptable levels. Student cohorting, in which students are divided into tw ...[more]

PMID: 34518375

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Project description:BackgroundSchool closures in response to the COVID-19 impacted children's education, protection, and wellbeing. After understanding these impacts and that children were not super spreaders, countries including Ethiopia decided to reopen schools with specified preconditions. But when deciding to reopen schools, the benefits and risks across education, public health and socio-economic factors have to be evaluated. However, there was information gap on status of schools as per preconditions. Hence, this study was designed to investigate status of schools in Southern Ethiopia.MethodsSchool based cross-sectional study was conducted in October 2020 in Southern Ethiopia. Sample of 430 schools were included. National school reopening guideline was used to develop checklist for assessment. Data was collected by public health experts at regional emergency operation center. Descriptive analysis was performed to summarize data.ResultsA total of 430 schools were included. More than two thirds, 298 (69.3%), of schools were from rural areas while 132 (30.7%) were from urban settings. The general infection prevention and water, sanitation and hygiene (IPC-WASH) status of schools were poor and COVID-19 specific preparations were inadequate to meet national preconditions to reopen schools during the pandemic. Total score from 24 items observed ranged from 3 to 22 points with mean score of 11.75 (SD±4.02). No school scored 100% and only 41 (9.5%) scored above 75% while 216 (50.2%%) scored below half point that is 12 items.ConclusionBoth the basic and COVID-19 specific IPC-WASH status of schools were inadequate to implement national school reopening preconditions and general standards. Some of strategies planned to accommodate teaching process and preconditions maximized inequalities in education. Although COVID-19 impact lessened due to vaccination and other factors, it is rational to consider fulfilling water and basic sanitation facilities to schools to prevent communicable diseases of public health importance.

Project description:IntroductionDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous states in the United States instituted measures to close schools or shift them to virtual platforms. Understanding parents' preferences for sending their children back to school, and their experiences with distance learning is critical for informing school reopening guidelines. This study characterizes parents' plans to return their children to school, and examines the challenges associated with school closures during the 2020-2021 academic year.MethodsA national-level cross-sectional online survey was conducted in September 2020. Focusing on a subset of 510 respondents, who were parents of school-aged children, we examined variations in parents' plans for their children to return to school by their demographic and family characteristics, and challenges they anticipated during the school-year using multivariable logistic regressions.ResultsFifty percent of respondents (n = 249) said that they would send their children back to school, 18% (n = 92) stated it would depend on what the district plans for school reopening, and 32% (n = 160) would not send their children back to school. No demographic characteristics were significantly associated with parents plans to not return their children to school. Overall, parents reported high-level of access to digital technology to support their child's learning needs (84%). However, those who reported challenges with distance learning due to a lack of childcare were less likely to not return their children to school (aOR = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.64). Parents who reported requiring supervision after school had higher odds of having plans to not return their children to school (aOR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.03, 3.79). Parents viewed COVID-19 vaccines and face-masks important for resuming in-person classes.DiscussionAbout one-third of parents objected to their children returning to school despite facing challenges with distance learning. Besides access to vaccines and face-masks, our findings highlight the need to better equip parents to support remote learning, and childcare.

Project description:BackgroundTo suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020. The effect of these measures is largely unknown since the role of children in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still unclear. There are only a few studies of school closures as a separate intervention to other social distancing measures, and little research exists on the effect of school opening during a pandemic.ObjectiveThis study aimed to model the effect of opening kindergartens and the schools in Norway in terms of a change in the reproduction number (R). A secondary objective was to assess if we can use the estimated R after school openings to infer the rates of transmission between children in schools.MethodsWe used an individual-based model (IBM) to assess the reopening of kindergartens and schools in two Norwegian cities, Oslo, the Norwegian capital, with a population of approximately 680 000, and Tromsø, which is the largest city in Northern Norway, with a population of approximately 75 000. The model uses demographic information and detailed data about the schools in both cities. We carried out an ensemble study to obtain robust results in spite of the considerable uncertainty that remains about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.ResultsWe found that reopening of Norwegian kindergartens and schools are associated with a change in R of 0.10 (95%CI 0.04-0.16) and 0.14 (95%CI 0.01-0.25) in the two cities under investigation if the in-school transmission rates for the SARS-CoV-2 virus are equal to what has previously been estimated for influenza pandemics.ConclusionWe found only a limited effect of reopening schools on the reproduction number, and we expect the same to hold true in other countries where nonpharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the pandemic. Consequently, current R-estimates are insufficiently accurate for determining the transmission rates in schools. For countries that have closed schools, planned interventions, such as the opening of selected schools, can be useful to infer general knowledge about children-to-children transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Dataset Information

Model-driven mitigation measures for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Publications

Model-driven mitigation measures for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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