Household cooking fuel estimates at global and country level for 1990 to 2030.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Stoner O
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8490351 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Household cooking fuel estimates at global and country level for 1990 to 2030.
Stoner Oliver O Lewis Jessica J Martínez Itzel Lucio IL Gumy Sophie S Economou Theo T Adair-Rohani Heather H
Nature communications 20211004 1
Household air pollution generated from the use of polluting cooking fuels and technologies is a major source of disease and environmental degradation in low- and middle-income countries. Using a novel modelling approach, we provide detailed global, regional and country estimates of the percentages and populations mainly using 6 fuel categories (electricity, gaseous fuels, kerosene, biomass, charcoal, coal) and overall polluting/clean fuel use - from 1990-2020 and with urban/rural disaggregation. ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundExposure to household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels in simple stoves is a major health risk. Modeling reliable estimates of solid fuel use is needed for monitoring trends and informing policy.ObjectivesIn order to revise the disease burden attributed to household air pollution for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project and for international reporting purposes, we estimated annual trends in the world population using solid fuels.MethodsWe developed a multilevel model based on national survey data on primary cooking fuel.ResultsThe proportion of households relying mainly on solid fuels for cooking has decreased from 62% (95% CI: 58, 66%) to 41% (95% CI: 37, 44%) between 1980 and 2010. Yet because of population growth, the actual number of persons exposed has remained stable at around 2.8 billion during three decades. Solid fuel use is most prevalent in Africa and Southeast Asia where > 60% of households cook with solid fuels. In other regions, primary solid fuel use ranges from 46% in the Western Pacific, to 35% in the Eastern Mediterranean and < 20% in the Americas and Europe.ConclusionMultilevel modeling is a suitable technique for deriving reliable solid-fuel use estimates. Worldwide, the proportion of households cooking mainly with solid fuels is decreasing. The absolute number of persons using solid fuels, however, has remained steady globally and is increasing in some regions. Surveys require enhancement to better capture the health implications of new technologies and multiple fuel use.
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Project description:Switching from polluting (e.g. wood, crop waste, coal) to clean cooking fuels (e.g. gas, electricity) can reduce household air pollution (HAP) exposures and climate-forcing emissions. While studies have evaluated specific interventions and assessed fuel-switching in repeated cross-sectional surveys, the role of different multilevel factors in household fuel switching, outside of interventions and across diverse community settings, is not well understood. We examined longitudinal survey data from 24,172 households in 177 rural communities across nine countries within the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. We assessed household-level primary cooking fuel switching during a median of 10 years of follow up (~2005-2015). We used hierarchical logistic regression models to examine the relative importance of household, community, sub-national and national-level factors contributing to primary fuel switching. One-half of study households (12,369) reported changing their primary cooking fuels between baseline and follow up surveys. Of these, 61% (7,582) switched from polluting (wood, dung, agricultural waste, charcoal, coal, kerosene) to clean (gas, electricity) fuels, 26% (3,109) switched between different polluting fuels, 10% (1,164) switched from clean to polluting fuels and 3% (522) switched between different clean fuels. Among the 17,830 households using polluting cooking fuels at baseline, household-level factors (e.g. larger household size, higher wealth, higher education level) were most strongly associated with switching from polluting to clean fuels in India; in all other countries, community-level factors (e.g. larger population density in 2010, larger increase in population density between 2005-2015) were the strongest predictors of polluting-to-clean fuel switching. The importance of community and sub-national factors relative to household characteristics in determining polluting-to-clean fuel switching varied dramatically across the nine countries examined. This highlights the potential importance of national and other contextual factors in shaping large-scale clean cooking transitions among rural communities in low- and middle-income countries.
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Project description:Background: Women bear a large share of disease burden caused by household air pollution due to their great involvement in domestic activities. Pollutant emissions are believed to vary by exposure patterns such as cooking and space heating. Little is known about the independent effect of solid cooking fuel combustion on breast cancer risk. We aimed to examine the association of indoor coal and wood combustion for cooking with breast cancer risk. Methods: During June 2004-July 2008, participants aged 30-79 from 10 diverse regions across China were enrolled in the China Kadoorie Biobank. Primary cooking fuel use information in up to three residences was self-reported at baseline. Multivariable logistic regression models yielded adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: A total of 290,396 female participants aged 30-79 were included in the main analysis. Compared with long-term clean fuel users, the fully adjusted ORs were 2.07 (95%CI: 1.37-3.13) for long-term coal users, 1.12 (95% CI: 0.72-1.76) for long-term wood users, and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.55-1.74) for those who used mixed solid fuels to cook. Those who had switched from solid to clean fuels did not have an excess risk of breast cancer (OR: 0.88, 95%CI 0.71-1.10). Conclusion: Long-term solid fuel combustion for cooking may increase the risk of breast cancer. The strength of association is stronger among coal users than wood users. Targeted interventions are needed to accelerate the access to clean and affordable energy.
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Project description:BackgroundThis study aims to explore and project the temporal trends in incidence and mortality of testicular cancer. Moreover, it can provide theoretical guidance for the rational allocation of health resources.MethodsThis study analyzed existing data on testicular cancer morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and predicted time-varying trends of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) from 2017 to 2030 in different ages, regions and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile sub-groups.ResultGlobally, numbers of testicular cancer cases in 2016 [66,833; 95% uncertainty interval (UI), 64,487-69,736] are 1.8 times larger than in 1990 (37,231; 95% UI, 36,116-38,515). The testicular cancer-related death cases increased slightly from 8,394 (95% UI, 7,980-8,904) in 1990 to 8,651 (95% UI, 8,292-9,027) in 2016. In aspect of ASIR, the data showed an up-trend from 0.74 (95% UI, 0.72-0.77) in 1990 to 0.88 (95% UI, 0.85-0.92) in 2016. The ASDR of testicular cancer declined from 0.18 (95% UI, 0.17-0.19) in 1990 to 0.12 (95% UI, 0.11-0.12) in 2016. From 2017 to 2030, predictions of trends in testicular cancer indicate that the ASIRs of most SDI countries are rising, but the ASDRs trends in testicular cancer will decrease.ConclusionsBy analyzing the available and reliable data in different ages, regions and SDI, this study shows a significant upward trend in incidence and a slow upward trend in mortality of testicular cancer from 1990 to 2016, and simultaneously, predicts the increase of ASIR and the downward trend of ASDR in 2017-2030.
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Project description:BackgroundThis research aims to identify the current and future trends in the incidence and death rate of prostate cancer and to provide the necessary data support for making relevant health decisions.MethodsThis study used the collected data and methodologies to describe the incidence and mortality trends of prostate cancer from 1990 to 2016. Based on the data, this paper projected the future trends in prostate cancer incidence and death rate.ResultsIn 2016, prostate cancer cases [1,435,742; 95% uncertainty interval (UI), 1,293,395-1,618,655] were nearly 2.5-fold the number in 1990 (579,457; 95% UI, 521,564-616,107). Deaths increased by 2.0-fold from 191,687 (95% UI, 168,885-209,254) in 1990 to 380,916 (95% UI, 320,808-412,868) in 2016. The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 17.75 (95% UI, 18.91-15.95) in 1990 to 22.12 (95% UI, 19.92-24.91) in 2016, changing 24.62%. The global change of age-standardized death rate (ASDR) has declined slightly, but in some regions it shows a trend of growth. By sociodemographic index (SDI) sub-types, prostate cancer will frequently occur in high SDI countries from 1990 to 2030. Simultaneously, the highest mortality will present in low SDI countries.ConclusionsThrough projecting and analyzing incidence and mortality rate of prostate cancer, from 1990 to 2030, by different ages, regions and SDI sub-types, this result may reveal the relationship between prostate cancer and financial development. At the same time, the result also showed a sufficiently heavy burden of prostate cancer, but the burden varies greatly in each region. The burden is a challenge and will require attention for all levels of society. The current study is beneficial to formulate more specific and efficient policies.
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