Could the 2010 HIV outbreak in Athens, Greece have been prevented? A mathematical modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

In 2009 and 2010, Athens, Greece experienced a hepatitis C virus (HCV) and a Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) outbreak among People Who Inject Drugs (PWID), respectively. The HCV outbreak was not detected, while that of HIV was identified in 2011. The integrated HIV-interventions, launched in early 2012, managed to reduce directly the HIV incidence and indirectly the HCV incidence. This study aims to assess what would have been the course of the HIV outbreak and its associated economic consequences if the 2009 HCV outbreak had been detected and integrated interventions had been initiated 1- or 2-years earlier.

Methods

The model was calibrated to reproduce the observed HIV epidemiological and clinical parameters among PWID of Athens, Greece. We examined the eff

SUBMITTER: Gountas I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8496824 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature