Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a heavy disease burden globally. The impact of process and timing of data collection on the accuracy of estimation of key epidemiological distributions are unclear. Because infection times are typically unobserved, there are relatively few estimates of generation time distribution.

Methods

We developed a statistical framework to jointly estimate generation time and incubation period from human-to-human transmission pairs, accounting for sampling biases. We applied the framework on 80 laboratory-confirmed human-to-human transmission pairs in China. We further inferred the infectiousness profile, serial interval distribution, proportions of presymptomatic transmission, and basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Lau YC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8499762 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature