Dataset Information

Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a heavy disease burden globally. The impact of process and timing of data collection on the accuracy of estimation of key epidemiological distributions are unclear. Because infection times are typically unobserved, there are relatively few estimates of generation time distribution.

Methods

We developed a statistical framework to jointly estimate generation time and incubation period from human-to-human transmission pairs, accounting for sampling biases. We applied the framework on 80 laboratory-confirmed human-to-human transmission pairs in China. We further inferred the infectiousness profile, serial interval distribution, proportions of presymptomatic transmission, and basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19.

Results

The estimated mean incubation period was 4.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-5.6), and mean generation time was 5.7 days (95% CI, 4.8-6.5). The estimated R0 based on the estimated generation time was 2.2 (95% CI, 1.9-2.4). A simulation study suggested that our approach could provide unbiased estimates, insensitive to the width of exposure windows.

Conclusions

Properly accounting for the timing and process of data collection is critical to have correct estimates of generation time and incubation period. R0 can be biased when it is derived based on serial interval as the proxy of generation time.

SUBMITTER: Lau YC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8499762 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Lau Yiu Chung YC Tsang Tim K TK Kennedy-Shaffer Lee L Kahn Rebecca R Lau Eric H Y EHY Chen Dongxuan D Wong Jessica Y JY Ali Sheikh Taslim ST Wu Peng P Cowling Benjamin J BJ

The Journal of infectious diseases 20211101 10

<h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a heavy disease burden globally. The impact of process and timing of data collection on the accuracy of estimation of key epidemiological distributions are unclear. Because infection times are typically unobserved, there are relatively few estimates of generation time distribution.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a statistical framework to jointly estimate generation time and incubation period from human-to-human transmission pairs, a ...[more]

PMID: 34423821

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Project description:Background:A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in China in December 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period for clinical disease (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), which has important implications for surveillance and control activities. Objective:To estimate the length of the incubation period of COVID-19 and describe its public health implications. Design:Pooled analysis of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between 4 January 2020 and 24 February 2020. Setting:News reports and press releases from 50 provinces, regions, and countries outside Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Participants:Persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection outside Hubei province, China. Measurements:Patient demographic characteristics and dates and times of possible exposure, symptom onset, fever onset, and hospitalization. Results:There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine. Limitation:Publicly reported cases may overrepresent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases. Conclusion:This work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases. Primary Funding Source:U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has currently become a major global public health problem. The prevalence of COVID-19 has increased rapidly worldwide. Because there is no effective COVID-19 vaccine available yet, it is increasingly important to understand the average incubation period of severe acute respiratory syndrome novel coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to design appropriate preventive and control strategies.ObjectiveThis systematic review and meta-analysis was designed to estimate the pooled average incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.MethodsWe conducted a systematic electronic web-based search of online databases, including PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase, and the World Health Organization Hinari portal. We included peer-reviewed research studies written in the English language on the incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 using pre-defined quality and inclusion criteria. STATA version 15 statistical software was used to analyze the data. Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal quality assessment tool for observational studies was utilized to evaluate the included studies. We extracted relevant data and presented in a tabular form. The I 2 test was used to assess heterogeneity across studies. Funnel plot asymmetry and Egger tests were used to check for publication bias. The final effect size was determined by applying a random-effects model.ResultsOur search identified 206 studies, amongst which 18 studies, representing 22,595 participants were included in the final analysis. The pooled average incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 was 5.7 days (95% CI, 5.1-6.4). Subgroup analyses by geographic location showed that the pooled average incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 was 6.1 days (95% CI, 5.34-6.94) in China and 4.54 (95% CI, 3.9-5.2) in other countries (Singapore, South Korea, and globally).ConclusionsThe pooled average incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 was about 6 days. The longest incubation period was observed in China. Global health initiatives as well as local health planners should consider this average incubation period when designing optimal prevention and control strategies for SARS-CoV-2. (Curr Ther Res Clin Exp. 2020; 81:XXX-XXX).

Dataset Information

Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019.

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