Dataset Information

Development and validation of a novel online calculator for estimating survival benefit of adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization in patients undergoing surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

Although adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for resected hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may improve survival for some patients, identifying which patients can benefit remains challenging. The present study aimed to construct a survival prediction calculator for individualized estimating the net survival benefit of adjuvant TACE for patients with resected HCC.

Methods

From a multicenter database, consecutive patients undergoing curative resection for HCC were enrolled and divided into the developing and validation cohorts. Using the independent survival predictors in the developing cohort, two nomogram models were constructed for patients with and without adjuvant TACE, respectively, which predictive performance was validated internally and externally by measuring concordance index (C-index) and calibration. The difference between two estimates of the prediction models was the expected survival benefit of adjuvant TACE.

Results

A total of 2514 patients met the inclusion criteria for the study. The nomogram prediction models for patients with and without adjuvant TACE were, respectively, built by incorporating the same eight independent survival predictors, including portal hypertension, Child-Pugh score, alpha-fetoprotein level, tumor size and number, macrovascular and microvascular invasion, and resection margin. These two prediction models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with all the C-indexes of greater than 0.75 in the developing and validation cohorts. A browser-based calculator was generated for individualized estimating the net survival benefit of adjuvant TACE.

Conclusions

Based on large-scale real-world data, an easy-to-use online calculator can be adopted as a decision aid to predict which patients with resected HCC can benefit from adjuvant TACE.

SUBMITTER: Liang L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8507320 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and validation of a novel online calculator for estimating survival benefit of adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization in patients undergoing surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Liang Lei L Li Chao C Wang Ming-Da MD Wang Hong H Zhou Ya-Hao YH Zeng Yong-Yi YY Zhang Wan-Guang WG Chen Ting-Hao TH Wang Nan-Ya NY Li Jie J Zhang Yao-Ming YM Wang Yu Y Gu Wei-Min WM Xing Hao H Diao Yong-Kang YK Lau Wan Yee WY Zhang Cheng-Wu CW Pawlik Timothy M TM Shen Feng F Huang Dong-Sheng DS Yang Tian T

Journal of hematology & oncology 20211012 1

<h4>Background and aims</h4>Although adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for resected hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may improve survival for some patients, identifying which patients can benefit remains challenging. The present study aimed to construct a survival prediction calculator for individualized estimating the net survival benefit of adjuvant TACE for patients with resected HCC.<h4>Methods</h4>From a multicenter database, consecutive patients undergoing curative res ...[more]

PMID: 34641921

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Project description:Targeted therapy is currently the standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but an effective treatment after the discontinuation of sorafenib therapy remains uncertain. We aim to investigate the survival benefits of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) after stopping sorafenib therapy. We retrospectively analyzed all patients with advanced HCC, who had received palliative TACE after terminating sorafenib therapy, from January 2008 to June 2016. Patients who were in the terminal stage (Child-Pugh class C or performance status 3-4), who received a liver transplantation, or who had received any HCC treatment other than TACE, were excluded. Finally, 28 patients were recruited as the TACE group, and were randomly matched 1:1 by age, gender, Child-Pugh class, extrahepatic metastasis, and portal vein thrombosis with 28 controls who only received supportive care. For avoiding any immortal time bias, the index date of outcome follow-up was also matched. Cumulative incidences of, and hazard ratios (HRs) for, patient mortality were analyzed. The baseline demographic data between the TACE group and the control group were similar, but the 1-year overall survival rate in the TACE group was significantly higher than that of the control group (41.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 19.4-63.0% vs. 24.5%, 95% CI: 6.3-42.7%; p < 0.01). In multivariate analysis, after adjusting for alpha-fetoprotein > 400ng/mL, Child-Pugh class B, and tumor extension > 50% of liver volume, TACE was independently associated with a decreased mortality risk(HR 0.19, 95% CI: 0.08-0.42). In addition, tumor extension > 50% of the liver was another independent prognostic factor associated with an increased mortality risk (HR 2.99, 95% CI: 1.31-6.82). Multivariate stratified analyses verified the association of TACE with a decreased mortality rate in each patient subgroup (all HR < 1.0). By controlling intrahepatic tumor growth, TACE may be a treatment option for use in improving patient survival in advanced HCC, after the termination of sorafenib therapy.

Project description:Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth most prevalent cancer in China. Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a common interventional therapy for HCC. In this study, we aimed to explore specific metabolites that can accurately predict prognosis after TACE in patients with HCC. Methods: Patients with HCC and healthy volunteers (n = 20 each) were recruited to our study; plasma samples were collected from patients before and after TACE and from healthy volunteers. Plasma samples were subjected to untargeted ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry metabolomics analysis, to identify metabolites significantly associated with the prognosis of patients with HCC after TACE. Results: Orthogonal filtered partial least squares discriminant analysis confirmed significant separation of the pre-TACE, post-TACE, and healthy groups, and 34 differential metabolites were identified between the pre-TACE and post-TACE groups. KEGG analysis revealed that phenylalanine, tyrosine, and tryptophan biosynthesis pathways and the phenylalanine metabolism pathway were potentially altered in HCC genesis and during TACE. Phenylalanine and tyrosine are involved in both pathways and were increased in the pre-TACE group relative to controls, with phenylalanine further increased in the post-TACE group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that PC 36:4|PC 18:2_18:2 (area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.798) is a potential marker for assessment of prognosis in patients with HCC after TACE. Moreover, ROC curve analysis indicated that palmitoylcarnitine (AUC = 1) is a marker with potential value for HCC diagnosis. Conclusions: Limited studies had been conducted on the detection of metabolites in the plasma of HCC patients before and after TACE. PC 36:4|PC 18:2_18:2 is a potential marker for evaluation of the therapeutic effects of TACE. This finding may be beneficial for the treatment of patients with HCC after TACE.

Project description:ObjectivesTo investigate if nested multiparametric decision tree models based on tumor size and CT texture parameters from pre-therapeutic imaging can accurately predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) lesion response to transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE).Materials and methodsThis retrospective study (January 2011-September 2017) included consecutive pre- and post-therapeutic dynamic CT scans of 37 patients with 92 biopsy-proven HCC lesions treated with drug-eluting bead TACE. Following manual segmentation of lesions according to modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria on baseline arterial phase CT images, tumor size and quantitative texture parameters were extracted. HCCs were grouped into lesions undergoing primary TACE (VT-lesions) or repeated TACE (RT-lesions). Distinct multiparametric decision tree models to predict complete response (CR) and progressive disease (PD) for the two groups were generated. AUC and model accuracy were assessed.ResultsThirty-eight of 72 VT-lesions (52.8%) and 8 of 20 RT-lesions (40%) achieved CR. Sixteen VT-lesions (22.2%) and 8 RT-lesions (40%) showed PD on follow-up imaging despite TACE treatment. Mean of positive pixels (MPP) was significantly higher in VT-lesions compared to RT-lesions (180.5 vs 92.8, p = 0.001). The highest AUC in ROC curve analysis and accuracy was observed for the prediction of CR in VT-lesions (AUC 0.96, positive predictive value 96.9%, accuracy 88.9%). Prediction of PD in VT-lesions (AUC 0.88, accuracy 80.6%), CR in RT-lesions (AUC 0.83, accuracy 75.0%), and PD in RT-lesions (AUC 0.86, accuracy 80.0%) was slightly inferior.ConclusionsNested multiparametric decision tree models based on tumor heterogeneity and size can predict HCC lesion response to TACE treatment with high accuracy. They may be used as an additional criterion in the multidisciplinary treatment decision-making process.Key points• HCC lesion response to TACE treatment can be predicted with high accuracy based on baseline tumor heterogeneity and size. • Complete response of HCC lesions undergoing primary TACE was correctly predicted with 88.9% accuracy and a positive predictive value of 96.9%. • Progressive disease was correctly predicted with 80.6% accuracy for lesions undergoing primary TACE and 80.0% accuracy for lesions undergoing repeated TACE.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a novel online calculator for estimating survival benefit of adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization in patients undergoing surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background and aims

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Development and validation of a novel online calculator for estimating survival benefit of adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization in patients undergoing surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Similar Datasets

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