Dataset Information

Viral genome-based Zika virus transmission dynamics in a paediatric cohort during the 2016 Nicaragua epidemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Nicaragua experienced a large Zika epidemic in 2016, with up to 50% of the population in Managua infected. With the domesticated Aedes aegypti mosquito as its vector, it is widely assumed that Zika virus transmission occurs within the household and/or via human mobility. We investigated these assumptions by using viral genomes to trace Zika transmission spatially.

Methods

We analysed serum samples from 119 paediatric Zika cases participating in the long-standing Paediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Managua, which was expanded to include Zika in 2015. An optimal spanning directed tree was constructed by minimizing the differences in viral sequence diversity composition between patient nodes, where low-frequency variants were used to increase the resolution of the inferred Zika outbreak dynamics.

Findings

Out of the 18 houses where pairwise difference in sample collection dates among all the household members was within 30 days, we only found two where viruses from individuals within the same household were up to 10^th-most closely linked to each other genetically. We also identified a substantial number of transmission events involving long geographical distances (n=30), as well as potential super-spreading events in the estimated transmission tree.

Interpretation

Our finding highlights that community transmission, often involving long geographical distances, played a much more important role in epidemic spread than within-household transmission.

Funding

This study was supported by an NUS startup grant (OMS) and grants R01 AI099631 (AB), P01 AI106695 (EH), P01 AI106695-03S1 (FB), and U19 AI118610 (EH) from the US National Institutes of Health.

SUBMITTER: Sun H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8511802 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Viral genome-based Zika virus transmission dynamics in a paediatric cohort during the 2016 Nicaragua epidemic.

Sun Haoyang H Binder Raquel A RA Dickens Borame B de Sessions Paola Florez PF Rabaa Maia A MA Ho Eliza Xin Pei EXP Cook Alex R AR Carrillo Fausto Bustos FB Monterrey Jairo Carey JC Kuan Guillermina G Balmaseda Angel A Ooi Eng Eong EE Harris Eva E Sessions October M OM

EBioMedicine 20211007

<h4>Background</h4>Nicaragua experienced a large Zika epidemic in 2016, with up to 50% of the population in Managua infected. With the domesticated Aedes aegypti mosquito as its vector, it is widely assumed that Zika virus transmission occurs within the household and/or via human mobility. We investigated these assumptions by using viral genomes to trace Zika transmission spatially.<h4>Methods</h4>We analysed serum samples from 119 paediatric Zika cases participating in the long-standing Paediat ...[more]

PMID: 34627081

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Project description:BackgroundLocal mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has been reported in two counties in the contiguous United States (US), prompting the issuance of travel, prevention, and testing guidance across the contiguous US. Large uncertainty, however, surrounds the quantification of the actual risk of ZIKV introduction and autochthonous transmission across different areas of the US.MethodsWe present a framework for the projection of ZIKV autochthonous transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 epidemic using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model accounting for seasonal, environmental, and detailed population data. The model generates an ensemble of travel-related case counts and simulates their potential to have triggered local transmission at the individual level in the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.ResultsWe estimate the risk of ZIKV introduction and local transmission at the county level and at the 0.025° × 0.025° cell level across the contiguous US. We provide a risk measure based on the probability of observing local transmission in a specific location during a ZIKV epidemic modeled after the epidemic observed during the years 2015-2016. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the model allows us to generate statistical estimates of the number of ZIKV introductions leading to local transmission in each location. We find that the risk was spatially heterogeneously distributed and concentrated in a few specific areas that account for less than 1% of the contiguous US population. Locations in Texas and Florida that have actually experienced local ZIKV transmission were among the places at highest risk according to our results. We also provide an analysis of the key determinants for local transmission and identify the key introduction routes and their contributions to ZIKV transmission in the contiguous US.ConclusionsThis framework provides quantitative risk estimates, fully captures the stochasticity of ZIKV introduction events, and is not biased by the under-ascertainment of cases due to asymptomatic cases. It provides general information on key risk determinants and data with potential uses in defining public health recommendations and guidance about ZIKV risk in the US.

Project description:BackgroundPuerto Rico began screening blood donations for Zika virus RNA with nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) on April 3, 2016, because of an emerging Zika virus outbreak. We followed up positive donors to assess the dynamics of viral and serological markers during the early stages of Zika virus infection and update the estimate of infection incidence in the Puerto Rican population during the outbreak.MethodsBlood donations from volunteer donors in Puerto Rico were screened for the presence of Zika virus RNA using the cobas Zika NAAT. Positive donations were further tested to confirm infection, estimate viral load, and identify Zika virus-specific IgM antibodies. Individuals with positive blood donations were invited to attend follow-up visits. Donations with confirmed infection (defined as detection of Zika virus RNA or IgM on additional testing of index or follow-up samples) were assessed for stage of infection according to Zika virus RNA detectability in simulated minipools, viral load, and Zika virus IgM status. A three-step process was used to estimate the mean duration of NAAT reactivity of Zika virus in human plasma from individuals identified pre-seroconversion with at least one follow up visit and to update the 2016 incidence estimate of Zika virus infection.FindingsBetween April 3 and Dec 31, 2016, 53 112 blood donations were screened for Zika virus, of which 351 tested positive, 339 had confirmed infections, and 319 could be staged. Compared with IgM-positive index donations (n=110), IgM-negative index donations (n=209) had higher mean viral loads (1·1 × 106vs 8·3 × 104 international units per mL) and were more likely to be detected in simulated minipools (93% [n=194] vs 26% [n=29]). The proportions of donations with confirmed infections that had viral RNA detected only in individual-donation NAATs (ie, not in simulated minipools) and were IgM positive increased as the epidemic evolved. The estimated mean duration of NAAT detectability in the 140 donors included in the follow-up study was 11·70 days (95% CI 10·06-14·36). Applying this detection period to the observed proportion of donations that were confirmed NAAT positive yielded a Zika virus seasonal incidence estimate of 21·1% (95% CI 18·1-24·1); 768 101 infections in a population of 3 638 773 in 2016.InterpretationCharacterisation of early Zika virus infection has implications for blood safety because infectivity of blood donations and utility of screening methods likely correlate with viral load and serological stage of infection. Our findings also have implications for diagnostic testing, public health surveillance, and epidemiology, and we estimate that around 21% of the Puerto Rican population was infected during the 2016 outbreak.FundingBiomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) emerged in northeast Brazil in 2015 and spread rapidly across the Americas, in populations that have been largely exposed to dengue virus (DENV). The impact of prior DENV infection on ZIKV infection outcome remains unclear. To study this potential impact, we analyzed the large 2016 Zika epidemic in Managua, Nicaragua, in a pediatric cohort with well-characterized DENV infection histories.Methods and findingsSymptomatic ZIKV infections (Zika cases) were identified by real-time reverse transcription PCR and serology in a community-based cohort study that follows approximately 3,700 children aged 2-14 years old. Annual blood samples were used to identify clinically inapparent ZIKV infections using a novel, well-characterized serological assay. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to examine the relation between prior DENV infection and incidence of symptomatic and inapparent ZIKV infection. The generalized-growth method was used to estimate the effective reproduction number. From January 1, 2016, to February 28, 2017, 560 symptomatic ZIKV infections and 1,356 total ZIKV infections (symptomatic and inapparent) were identified, for an overall incidence of 14.0 symptomatic infections (95% CI: 12.9, 15.2) and 36.5 total infections (95% CI: 34.7, 38.6) per 100 person-years. Effective reproduction number estimates ranged from 3.3 to 3.4, depending on the ascending wave period. Incidence of symptomatic and total ZIKV infections was higher in females and older children. Analysis of the effect of prior DENV infection was performed on 3,027 participants with documented DENV infection histories, of which 743 (24.5%) had experienced at least 1 prior DENV infection during cohort follow-up. Prior DENV infection was inversely associated with risk of symptomatic ZIKV infection in the total cohort population (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.81; p < 0.005) and with risk of symptomatic presentation given ZIKV infection (IRR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.86) when adjusted for age, sex, and recent DENV infection (1-2 years before ZIKV infection). Recent DENV infection was significantly associated with decreased risk of symptomatic ZIKV infection when adjusted for age and sex, but not when adjusted for prior DENV infection. Prior or recent DENV infection did not affect the rate of total ZIKV infections. Our findings are limited to a pediatric population and constrained by the epidemiology of the site.ConclusionsThese findings support that prior DENV infection may protect individuals from symptomatic Zika. More research is needed to address the possible immunological mechanism(s) of cross-protection between ZIKV and DENV and whether DENV immunity also modulates other ZIKV infection outcomes such as neurological or congenital syndromes.

Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global epidemic in 2015-2016 from Latin America with its true geographical extent remaining unclear due to widely presumed underreporting. The identification of locations with potential and unknown spread of ZIKV is a key yet understudied component for outbreak preparedness. Here, we aim to identify locations at a high risk of cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016 to further the understanding of the global ZIKV epidemiology, which is critical for the mitigation of the risk of future epidemics.MethodsWe developed an importation simulation model to estimate the weekly number of ZIKV infections imported in each susceptible spatial unit (i.e. location that did not report any autochthonous Zika cases during 2015-2016), integrating epidemiological, demographic, and travel data as model inputs. Thereafter, a global risk model was applied to estimate the weekly ZIKV transmissibility during 2015-2016 for each location. Finally, we assessed the risk of onward ZIKV spread following importation in each susceptible spatial unit to identify locations with a high potential for cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016.ResultsWe have found 24 susceptible spatial units that were likely to have experienced cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016, of which 10 continue to have a high risk estimate within a highly conservative scenario, namely, Luanda in Angola, Banten in Indonesia, Maharashtra in India, Lagos in Nigeria, Taiwan and Guangdong in China, Dakar in Senegal, Maputo in Mozambique, Kinshasa in Congo DRC, and Pool in Congo. Notably, among the 24 susceptible spatial units identified, some have reported their first ZIKV outbreaks since 2017, thus adding to the credibility of our results (derived using 2015-2016 data only).ConclusionOur study has provided valuable insights into the potentially high-risk locations for cryptic ZIKV circulation during the 2015-2016 pandemic and has also laid a foundation for future studies that attempt to further narrow this key knowledge gap. Our modelling framework can be adapted to identify areas with likely unknown spread of other emerging vector-borne diseases, which has important implications for public health readiness especially in resource-limited settings.

Dataset Information

Viral genome-based Zika virus transmission dynamics in a paediatric cohort during the 2016 Nicaragua epidemic.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Viral genome-based Zika virus transmission dynamics in a paediatric cohort during the 2016 Nicaragua epidemic.

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