Dependence of COVID-19 Policies on End-of-Year Holiday Contacts in Mexico City Metropolitan Area: A Modeling Study.

ABSTRACT: Background. Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has the largest number of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) cases in Mexico and is at risk of exceeding its hospital capacity in early 2021. Methods. We used the Stanford-CIDE Coronavirus Simulation Model (SC-COSMO), a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19, to evaluate the effect of policies considering increased contacts during the end-of-year holidays, intensification of physical distancing, and school reopening on projected confirmed cases and deaths, hospital demand, and hospital capacity exceedance. Model parameters were derived from primary data, literature, and calibrated. Results. Following high levels of holiday contacts even with no in-person schooling, MCMA will have 0.9 million (95% prediction interval 0.3

SUBMITTER: Alarid-Escudero F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8512280 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul-Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature