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Model retraining and information sharing in a supply chain with long-term fluctuating demands.


ABSTRACT: Demand forecasting based on empirical data is a viable approach for optimizing a supply chain. However, in this approach, a model constructed from past data occasionally becomes outdated due to long-term changes in the environment, in which case the model should be updated (i.e., retrained) using the latest data. In this study, we examine the effects of updating models in a supply chain using a minimal setting. We demonstrate that when each party in the supply chain has its own forecasting model, uncoordinated model retraining causes the bullwhip effect even if a very simple replenishment policy is applied. Our results also indicate that sharing the forecasting model among the parties involved significantly reduces the bullwhip effect.

SUBMITTER: Ezaki T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8514521 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Model retraining and information sharing in a supply chain with long-term fluctuating demands.

Ezaki Takahiro T   Imura Naoto N   Nishinari Katsuhiro K  

Scientific reports 20211013 1


Demand forecasting based on empirical data is a viable approach for optimizing a supply chain. However, in this approach, a model constructed from past data occasionally becomes outdated due to long-term changes in the environment, in which case the model should be updated (i.e., retrained) using the latest data. In this study, we examine the effects of updating models in a supply chain using a minimal setting. We demonstrate that when each party in the supply chain has its own forecasting model  ...[more]

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