Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won't save us.

ABSTRACT: When inferring on the magnitude of future heat-related mortality due to climate change, human adaptation to heat should be accounted for. We model long-term changes in minimum mortality temperatures (MMT), a well-established metric denoting the lowest risk of heat-related mortality, as a function of climate change and socio-economic progress across 3820 cities. Depending on the combination of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways evaluated, by 2100 the risk to human health is expected to decline in 60% to 80% of the cities against contemporary conditions. This is caused by an average global increase in MMTs driven by long-term human acclimatisation to future climatic conditions and economic development of countries. While our adaptation model suggests that negative effects on he

SUBMITTER: Krummenauer L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8514539 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature