Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.

ABSTRACT: Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population. This can lead to independent outbreaks that spark from distinct areas of the local contact (social) network. Such mechanism has the potential to boost incidence, making control efforts and contact tracing less effective. Here, through a modeling approach we show that the effect produced by the number of initial infections is

SUBMITTER: Mazzoli M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8516261 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature