High attack rate of COVID-19 in an organized tour group of vaccinated travellers to Iceland.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Benenson S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8522358 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
High attack rate of COVID-19 in an organized tour group of vaccinated travellers to Iceland.
Benenson Shmuel S Ottolenghi Miriam M Cohen Matan J MJ Nir-Paz Ran R Oster Yonatan Y
Journal of travel medicine 20211201 8
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Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8385836 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAs of April 2, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases has crossed over 1 million with more than 55,000 deaths. The household transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen, remains elusive.MethodsBased on a comprehensive contact-tracing dataset from Guangzhou, we estimated both the population-level effective reproductive number and individual-level secondary attack rate (SAR) in the household setting. We assessed age effects on transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period.ResultsA total of 195 unrelated clusters with 212 primary cases, 137 nonprimary (secondary or tertiary) cases and 1938 uninfected close contacts were traced. We estimated the household SAR to be 13.8% (95% CI: 11.1-17.0%) if household contacts are defined as all close relatives and 19.3% (95% CI: 15.5-23.9%) if household contacts only include those at the same residential address as the cases, assuming a mean incubation period of 4 days and a maximum infectious period of 13 days. The odds of infection among children (<20 years old) was only 0.26 (95% CI: 0.13-0.54) times of that among the elderly (≥60 years old). There was no gender difference in the risk of infection. COVID-19 cases were at least as infectious during their incubation period as during their illness. On average, a COVID-19 case infected 0.48 (95% CI: 0.39-0.58) close contacts. Had isolation not been implemented, this number increases to 0.62 (95% CI: 0.51-0.75). The effective reproductive number in Guangzhou dropped from above 1 to below 0.5 in about 1 week.ConclusionSARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the elderly ≥60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. Case finding and isolation alone may be inadequate to contain the pandemic and need to be used in conjunction with heightened restriction of human movement as implemented in Guangzhou.
| S-EPMC7276017 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic hit South America badly with multiple waves. Different COVID-19 variants have been storming across the region, leading to more severe infections and deaths even in places with high vaccination coverage. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal variability of the COVID-19 pandemic and estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR), infection attack rate (IAR) and reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) for twelve most affected South American countries.MethodsWe fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR)-based model with a time-varying transmission rate to the reported COVID-19 deaths for the twelve South American countries with the highest mortalities. Most of the epidemiological datasets analysed in this work are retrieved from the disease surveillance systems by the World Health Organization, Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and Our World in Data. We investigate the COVID-19 mortalities in these countries, which could represent the situation for the overall South American region. We employ COVID-19 dynamic model with-and-without vaccination considering time-varying flexible transmission rate to estimate IFR, IAR and [Formula: see text] of COVID-19 for the South American countries.ResultsWe simulate the model in each scenario under suitable parameter settings and yield biologically reasonable estimates for IFR (varies between 0.303% and 0.723%), IAR (varies between 0.03 and 0.784) and [Formula: see text] (varies between 0.7 and 2.5) for the 12 South American countries. We observe that the severity, dynamical patterns of deaths and time-varying transmission rates among the countries are highly heterogeneous. Further analysis of the model with the effect of vaccination highlights that increasing the vaccination rate could help suppress the pandemic in South America.ConclusionsThis study reveals possible reasons for the two waves of COVID-19 outbreaks in South America. We observed reductions in the transmission rate corresponding to each wave plausibly due to improvement in nonpharmaceutical interventions measures and human protective behavioral reaction to recent deaths. Thus, strategies coupling social distancing and vaccination could substantially suppress the mortality rate of COVID-19 in South America.
| S-EPMC8983329 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThis report estimates the risk of COVID-19 importation and secondary transmission associated with a modified quarantine programme in Canada.Design and participantsProspective analysis of international asymptomatic travellers entering Alberta, Canada.InterventionsAll participants were required to receive a PCR COVID-19 test on arrival. If negative, participants could leave quarantine but were required to have a second test 6 or 7 days after arrival. If the arrival test was positive, participants were required to remain in quarantine for 14 days.Main outcome measuresProportion and rate of participants testing positive for COVID-19; number of cases of secondary transmission.ResultsThe analysis included 9535 international travellers entering Alberta by air (N=8398) or land (N=1137) that voluntarily enrolled in the Alberta Border Testing Pilot Programme (a subset of all travellers); most (83.1%) were Canadian citizens. Among the 9310 participants who received at least one test, 200 (21.5 per 1000, 95% CI 18.6 to 24.6) tested positive. Sixty-nine per cent (138/200) of positive tests were detected on arrival (14.8 per 1000 travellers, 95% CI 12.5 to 17.5). 62 cases (6.7 per 1000 travellers, 95% CI 5.1 to 8.5; 31.0% of positive cases) were identified among participants that had been released from quarantine following a negative test result on arrival. Of 192 participants who developed symptoms, 51 (26.6%) tested positive after arrival. Among participants with positive tests, four (2.0%) were hospitalised for COVID-19; none required critical care or died. Contact tracing among participants who tested positive identified 200 contacts; of 88 contacts tested, 22 were cases of secondary transmission (14 from those testing positive on arrival and 8 from those testing positive thereafter). SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 lineage was not detected in any of the 200 positive cases.Conclusions21.5 per 1000 international travellers tested positive for COVID-19. Most (69%) tested positive on arrival and 31% tested positive during follow-up. These findings suggest the need for ongoing vigilance in travellers testing negative on arrival and highlight the value of follow-up testing and contact tracing to monitor and limit secondary transmission where possible.
| S-EPMC8228575 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAs of June 8, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases had reached more than 7 million with over 400 000 deaths. The household transmissibility of the causative pathogen, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household and non-household close contacts in Guangzhou, China, using a statistical transmission model.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we used a comprehensive contact tracing dataset from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 (defined as the probability that an infected individual will transmit the disease to a susceptible individual) among household and non-household contacts, using a statistical transmission model. We considered two alternative definitions of household contacts in the analysis: individuals who were either family members or close relatives, such as parents and parents-in-law, regardless of residential address, and individuals living at the same address regardless of relationship. We assessed the demographic determinants of transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period.FindingsBetween Jan 7, 2020, and Feb 18, 2020, we traced 195 unrelated close contact groups (215 primary cases, 134 secondary or tertiary cases, and 1964 uninfected close contacts). By identifying households from these groups, assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days, a maximum infectious period of 13 days, and no case isolation, the estimated secondary attack rate among household contacts was 12·4% (95% CI 9·8-15·4) when household contacts were defined on the basis of close relatives and 17·1% (13·3-21·8) when household contacts were defined on the basis of residential address. Compared with the oldest age group (≥60 years), the risk of household infection was lower in the youngest age group (<20 years; odds ratio [OR] 0·23 [95% CI 0·11-0·46]) and among adults aged 20-59 years (OR 0·64 [95% CI 0·43-0·97]). Our results suggest greater infectivity during the incubation period than during the symptomatic period, although differences were not statistically significant (OR 0·61 [95% CI 0·27-1·38]). The estimated local reproductive number (R) based on observed contact frequencies of primary cases was 0·5 (95% CI 0·41-0·62) in Guangzhou. The projected local R, had there been no isolation of cases or quarantine of their contacts, was 0·6 (95% CI 0·49-0·74) when household was defined on the basis of close relatives.InterpretationSARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. Older individuals (aged ≥60 years) are the most susceptible to household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to case finding and isolation, timely tracing and quarantine of close contacts should be implemented to prevent onward transmission during the viral incubation period.FundingUS National Institutes of Health, Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangzhou, Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality, Key Research and Development Program of China.
| S-EPMC7529929 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Remote Arctic communities have often been depicted as being particularly vulnerable to the challenges of disasters, with their location and lack of infrastructure exacerbating risk. This study explores the characteristics of local resilience in the Arctic using the case study of the communities of the north-western Westfjords. A total of 42 semi-structured interviews were carried out with various community members, seeking to uncover the features of inbuilt resilience that contribute to successes and vulnerabilities. These were transcribed, coded, and categorised in relation to an integrated framework for assessing community resilience in disaster management, which groups topics via the themes of environmental, social, governance, economic, and infrastructure. All themes played a role in the success of local coping strategies, with easy access to the natural environment central to physical and mental well-being. Despite this, vulnerabilities of the community were evident, including insufficient local healthcare workers during a severe COVID-19 outbreak in a care home, the absence of a local quarantine hotel, and insufficient information in foreign languages for non-natives of Iceland. The general trend of following rules and expert advice was demonstrative of strong social capital, with locals trusting those in charge, nationally and locally, to manage the pandemic.
| S-EPMC10851826 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.
| S-EPMC8099035 | biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC11318244 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Fear, whilst essential for survival, has the power to impair rational thinking. In tourism, fear can cease international travels. Previous studies demonstrated that cosmopolitan travellers are more resistant to irrational fear. This study aims to verify if cosmopolitans are more resistant to irrationality when facing the fear of COVID-19. Building on grounded theory, 64 in-depth interviews and direct observation, this study found that the cosmopolitan mindset, open-mindedness and strive for objectivity facilitates personal resilience, rational functioning in the face of fear. The study categorises travellers based on their resilience and suggests how to encourage each category amidst the threat of COVID-19. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11628-022-00482-z.
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Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8781315 | biostudies-literature