Dataset Information

Did Hydro-climatic Extremes, Positive Checks, and Economic Fluctuations Modulate the Epidemics Outbreaks in Late Imperial China?

ABSTRACT: Empirical research has shown that climate-related variables, the decline in economic well-being, and the mutual reinforcement of positive checks are the primary drivers of epidemic outbreaks in recent human history. However, their relative importance in causing the outbreak of epidemics is rarely examined quantitatively in a single study. I sought to address this issue by analyzing the 1402 epidemic incidents in China between 1841 and 1911, which partially overlaps partly with the Third Pandemic period. Fine-grained historical big data, multiple regression, and wavelet coherence analysis were employed. Statistical results show that economic fluctuations drove the country-wide epidemics outbreaks in China in inter-annual and decadal time scales. Economic fluctuations could cause short-term hardship and long-term impoverishment to the underprivileged social groups since a large portion of the Chinese population lived at the subsistence level in the past. The fluctuations might have sustained the repeated waves of epidemic outbreaks during the Third Pandemic period.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10745-021-00272-7.

SUBMITTER: Lee HF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8527977 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Did Hydro-climatic Extremes, Positive Checks, and Economic Fluctuations Modulate the Epidemics Outbreaks in Late Imperial China?

Lee Harry F HF

Human ecology: an interdisciplinary journal 20211020 1

Empirical research has shown that climate-related variables, the decline in economic well-being, and the mutual reinforcement of positive checks are the primary drivers of epidemic outbreaks in recent human history. However, their relative importance in causing the outbreak of epidemics is rarely examined quantitatively in a single study. I sought to address this issue by analyzing the 1402 epidemic incidents in China between 1841 and 1911, which partially overlaps partly with the Third Pandemic ...[more]

PMID: 34697513

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Project description:Mounting evidence suggests that we are experiencing rapidly accelerating global climate change. Understanding how climate change may affect life is critical to identifying species and populations that are vulnerable. Most current research focuses on investigating how organisms may respond to gradual warming, but another effect of climate change is extreme annual variation in precipitation associated with alternations between drought and unusually heavy precipitation, like that exhibited in the western regions of North America. Understanding climate change effects on animal reproductive behaviour is especially important, because it directly impacts population persistence. Here, we present data on reproduction in nest-box breeding, resident mountain chickadees inhabiting high and low elevations in the Sierra Nevada across 5 years. These 5 years of data represent the full range of climatic variation from the largest drought in five centuries to one of the heaviest snow years on record. There were significant differences in most reproductive characteristics associated with variation in climate. Both climate extremes were negatively associated with reproductive success at high and low elevations, but low-elevation chickadees had worse reproductive success in the largest drought year while high-elevation chickadees had worse reproductive success in the heaviest snow year. Considering that the frequency of extreme climate swings between drought and snow is predicted to increase, such swings may have negative effects on chickadee populations across the entire elevation gradient, as climatic extremes should favour different adaptations. Alternatively, it is possible that climate fluctuations might favour preserving genetic variation allowing for higher resilience. It is too early to make specific predictions regarding how increased frequency of extreme climate fluctuation may impact chickadees; however, our data suggest that even the most common species may be susceptible.

Dataset Information

Did Hydro-climatic Extremes, Positive Checks, and Economic Fluctuations Modulate the Epidemics Outbreaks in Late Imperial China?

Supplementary information

Publications

Did Hydro-climatic Extremes, Positive Checks, and Economic Fluctuations Modulate the Epidemics Outbreaks in Late Imperial China?

Similar Datasets

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