Shock propagation channels behind the global economic contagion network. The role of economic sectors and the direction of trade.

ABSTRACT: Examining the spread of macroeconomic phenomena between countries has become increasingly popular after the 2008 economic crisis, but the recent COVID-19 pandemic rendered this issue much more relevant as it shed more light on the risks arising from strongly interconnected economies. This paper intends to extend previous studies in this line by examining the relationship between trade openness and business cycle synchronization. It extends the scope of previous analyses in three areas. First, we use a Granger-causality approach to identify synchronization. Second, trade is broken down to the sector level and third, we distinguish between upstream and downstream connections. These developments allow for a directed approach in the analysis. We use conditional logit regressions to estimate th

SUBMITTER: Iloskics Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8528308 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature