Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening.

ABSTRACT: Some of the new generation CMIP6 models are characterised by a strong temperature increase in response to increasing greenhouse gases concentration¹. At first glance, these models seem less consistent with the temperature warming observed over the last decades. Here, we investigate this issue through the prism of low-frequency internal variability by comparing with observations an ensemble of 32 historical simulations performed with the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, characterized by a rather large climate sensitivity. We show that members with the smallest rates of global warming over the past 6-7 decades are also those with a large internally-driven weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This subset of members also matches several AMOC observational fingerpr

SUBMITTER: Bonnet R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8528826 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature