Eliciting Beliefs about COVID-19 Prevalence and Mortality: Epidemiological Models Compared with The Street.

ABSTRACT: Subjective belief elicitation about uncertain events has a long lineage in the economics and statistics literatures. Recent developments in the experimental elicitation and statistical estimation of subjective belief distributions allow inferences about whether these beliefs are biased relative to expert opinion, and the confidence with which they are held. Beliefs about COVID-19 prevalence and mortality interact with risk management efforts, so it is important to understand relationships between these beliefs and publicly disseminated statistics, particularly those based on evolving epidemiological models. The pandemic provides a unique setting over which to bracket the range of possible COVID-19 prevalence and mortality outcomes given the proliferation of estimates from epidemiological m

SUBMITTER: Harrison GW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8546055 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature