Quantifying previous SARS-CoV-2 infection through mixture modelling of antibody levels.

ABSTRACT: As countries decide on vaccination strategies and how to ease movement restrictions, estimating the proportion of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 is important for predicting the future burden of COVID-19. This proportion is usually estimated from serosurvey data in two steps: first the proportion above a threshold antibody level is calculated, then the crude estimate is adjusted using external estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A drawback of this approach is that the PCR-confirmed cases used to estimate the sensitivity of the threshold may not be representative of cases in the wider population-e.g., they may be more recently infected and more severely symptomatic. Mixture modelling offers an alternative approach that does not require external data from PCR-confirm

SUBMITTER: Bottomley C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8548402 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature