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Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures.


ABSTRACT: Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Ou Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8556229 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Deep mitigation of CO<sub>2</sub> and non-CO<sub>2</sub> greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures.

Ou Yang Y   Roney Christopher C   Alsalam Jameel J   Calvin Katherine K   Creason Jared J   Edmonds Jae J   Fawcett Allen A AA   Kyle Page P   Narayan Kanishka K   O'Rourke Patrick P   Patel Pralit P   Ragnauth Shaun S   Smith Steven J SJ   McJeon Haewon H  

Nature communications 20211029 1


Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO<sub>2</sub> and non-CO<sub>2</sub> GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO<sub>2</sub> and non-CO<sub>2</sub> GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO<sub>2<  ...[more]

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