Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study.

ABSTRACT: Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during these initial stages (i.e., February 18 - March 2) of the outbreak were less than 2 days. A stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed cases suggests that the basic reproduction number (R₀) of COVID-19 was 8.5 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6.3, 10.9] among the church members, whereas (R₀ = 1.9 [95% CrI: 0.4, 4.4]) in the rest of the population of Daegu City. The model also suggests that there were already 4 [95% CrI: 2, 11] undetected cases of COVID-19 on February 7 when th

SUBMITTER: Kim JH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8559423 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature