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Home advantage mediated (HAM) by referee bias and team performance during covid.

ABSTRACT: The fans' importance in sports is acknowledged by the term 'the 12th man', a figurative extra player for the home team. Sport teams are indeed more successful when they play in front of their fans than when they play away. The supposed mechanism behind this phenomenon, termed Home Advantage (HA), is that fans' support spurs home players to better performance and biases referees, which in turn determines the outcome. The inference about the importance of fans' support is, however, indirect as there is normally a 12th man of this kind, even if it is an opponent's. The current pandemic, which forced sporting activities to take place behind closed doors, provides the necessary control condition. Here we employ a novel conceptual HA model on a sample of over 4000 soccer matches from 12 European leagues, some played in front of spectators and some in empty stadia, to demonstrate that fans are indeed responsible for the HA. However, the absence of fans reduces the HA by a third, as the home team's performance suffers and the officials' bias disappears. The current pandemic reveals that the figurative 12th man is no mere fan hyperbole, but is in fact the most important player in the home team.

SUBMITTER: Bilalic M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8566522 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Home advantage mediated (HAM) by referee bias and team performance during covid.

Bilalić Merim M Gula Bartosz B Vaci Nemanja N

Scientific reports 20211103 1

The fans' importance in sports is acknowledged by the term 'the 12th man', a figurative extra player for the home team. Sport teams are indeed more successful when they play in front of their fans than when they play away. The supposed mechanism behind this phenomenon, termed Home Advantage (HA), is that fans' support spurs home players to better performance and biases referees, which in turn determines the outcome. The inference about the importance of fans' support is, however, indirect as the ...[more]

PMID: 34732742

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Project description:BackgroundDue to the unfortunate pandemic situation, the phenomena of home advantage and referee bias in sports have recently received a particular research attention, especially in association football. In this regard, several studies were conducted on the last portion of the 2019-20 season: the majority of them suggests a reduction-but not the elimination-of the two phenomena, with some exceptions in which no reduction was found or, at the other extreme, the phenomena were not observed at all.MethodsThe continuation of the pandemic made it possible to replicate the previous studies considering the complete 2020-21 season, thus with the important added value of having a fully balanced home/away schedule-and a higher number of matches-in the various leagues. In particular, the sample of the present study consisted of 3,898 matches from the first and second divisions of the UEFA top five ranked countries, that is, England, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France. For the home advantage, the following variables were examined: distribution of matches outcomes and home advantage for points (also for previous seasons from the 2014-15 one); ball possession; total shots; shots on goal; and corner kicks. Instead, for he referee bias, the following variables were examined: fouls; yellow cards; red cards; penalty kicks; and extra time. Chi-square tests were used to compare the distribution of matches outcomes, and t-tests to compare home vs. away data for the other variables in the 2020-21 season; Bayesian and equivalence analyses were also conducted.ResultsThe main results are as follows: (a) the distribution of matches outcomes in the 2020-21 season was significantly different from that of the last five complete seasons with spectators (Chi-square = 37.42, df = 2, p < 0.001), with fewer home victories and more away victories; the resulting values of the home advantage for points were 54.95% for the 2020-21 season, and 59.36% for the previous seasons; (b) for the other home advantage variables, a statistically significant overall advantage for the home team emerged; nevertheless, the strength of the differences between home and away teams was generally small (0.09 < Cohen's d < 0.17), and the corresponding means can be considered statistically equivalent for all variables but the total shots; (c) no statistically significant differences emerged between home and away teams for any of the referee bias variables.DiscussionThese findings demonstrate that the absence of spectators significantly reduced the home advantage compared to previous seasons with spectators. A slight home advantage persisted in the 2020-21 season, probably due to other factors, namely, learning and travel, according to the model by Courneya & Carron (1992). Conversely, the referee bias was not observed, suggesting that it mainly derives from the pressure normally exerted by spectators.

Project description:The main factors for home advantage (HA), quantified by the number of points won at home expressed as a percentage of all points, are believed to be crowd support, territoriality, familiarity, and travel fatigue. In 2020, the German Soccer Bundesliga interrupted its championship due to the Covid-19 pandemic after 25 rounds and the last nine rounds were played without audience. This unique situation allowed studying the effect of spectators on the team's performance and the referee's decisions. We hypothesized a decrease in HA and a more balanced distribution of fouls and disciplinary cards in the games without audience (GWOA) compared to the games with audience (GWA). We evaluated n = 223 GWA and n = 83 GWOA of the season 2019/20 and all games of the preceding season 2018/19 to analyze the distribution of game outcomes (wins, losses, and draws) and HA. We analyzed the number of fouls, disciplinary cards, and penalty kicks. We found significant differences in HA between GWA (HA = 54.35%) and GWOA (HA = 44.1%) as well as GWOA and games of 2018/19 (HA = 57.63%). The distribution of game outcomes in GWOA did not differ from GWA but differed significantly from 2018/19 (p = 0.031). The distribution of fouls showed a significant difference to equal distribution in GWA [home: 2,595 (48.56%); away: 2,749 (51.44%)] but not in GWOA [home: 1,067 (50.54%); away: 1,044 (49.46%)]. In the GWOA, we counted 178 (51.1%, home) and 170 (48.9%, away) cards, representing a significant difference in the distribution to GWA [home: 405 (44.85%); away: 498 (55.15%)]. The number of red cards differed significantly from an equal distribution for GWA (14 home and 28 away) but not for GWOA (eight home and seven away). In the last nine rounds without audience, we observed more home losses (36) than home wins (27). Hence, the Covid-19 lock-down led to a home disadvantage. One reason for this surprising result could be that the home team is missing an important familiar aspect when playing in their empty stadium without social support from their home audience. Furthermore, both teams know about the HA thus the away team could be more motivated in this unusual situation.

Dataset Information

Home advantage mediated (HAM) by referee bias and team performance during covid.

Publications

Home advantage mediated (HAM) by referee bias and team performance during covid.

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