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A method to estimate probability of disease and vaccine efficacy from clinical trial immunogenicity data.

ABSTRACT: Vaccine efficacy is often assessed by counting disease cases in a clinical trial. A new quantitative framework proposed here ("PoDBAY," Probability of Disease Bayesian Analysis), estimates vaccine efficacy (and confidence interval) using immune response biomarker data collected shortly after vaccination. Given a biomarker associated with protection, PoDBAY describes the relationship between biomarker and probability of disease as a sigmoid probability of disease ("PoD") curve. The PoDBAY framework is illustrated using clinical trial simulations and with data for influenza, zoster, and dengue virus vaccines. The simulations demonstrate that PoDBAY efficacy estimation (which integrates the PoD and biomarker data), can be accurate and more precise than the standard (case-count) estimation, contributing to more sensitive and specific decisions than threshold-based correlate of protection or case-count-based methods. For all three vaccine examples, the PoD fit indicates a substantial association between the biomarkers and protection, and efficacy estimated by PoDBAY from relatively little immunogenicity data is predictive of the standard estimate of efficacy, demonstrating how PoDBAY can provide early assessments of vaccine efficacy. Methods like PoDBAY can help accelerate and economize vaccine development using an immunological predictor of protection. For example, in the current effort against the COVID-19 pandemic it might provide information to help prioritize (rank) candidates both earlier in a trial and earlier in development.

SUBMITTER: Dudasova J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8568947 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A method to estimate probability of disease and vaccine efficacy from clinical trial immunogenicity data.

Dudášová Julie J Laube Regina R Valiathan Chandni C Wiener Matthew C MC Gheyas Ferdous F Fišer Pavel P Ivanauskaite Justina J Liu Frank F Sachs Jeffrey R JR

NPJ vaccines 20211104 1

Vaccine efficacy is often assessed by counting disease cases in a clinical trial. A new quantitative framework proposed here ("PoDBAY," Probability of Disease Bayesian Analysis), estimates vaccine efficacy (and confidence interval) using immune response biomarker data collected shortly after vaccination. Given a biomarker associated with protection, PoDBAY describes the relationship between biomarker and probability of disease as a sigmoid probability of disease ("PoD") curve. The PoDBAY framewo ...[more]

PMID: 34737322

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Project description:ImportanceGreater than 20% of cases and 0.4% of deaths from COVID-19 occur in children. Following demonstration of the safety and efficacy of the adjuvanted, recombinant spike protein vaccine NVX-CoV2373 in adults, the PREVENT-19 trial immediately expanded to adolescents.ObjectiveTo evaluate the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of NVX-CoV2373 in adolescents.Design, setting, and participantsThe NVX-CoV2373 vaccine was evaluated in adolescents aged 12 to 17 years in an expansion of PREVENT-19, a phase 3, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled multicenter clinical trial in the US. Participants were enrolled from April 26 to June 5, 2021, and the study is ongoing. A blinded crossover was implemented after 2 months of safety follow-up to offer active vaccine to all participants. Key exclusion criteria included known previous laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or known immunosuppression. Of 2304 participants assessed for eligibility, 57 were excluded and 2247 were randomized.InterventionsParticipants were randomized 2:1 to 2 intramuscular injections of NVX-CoV2373 or placebo, 21 days apart.Main outcomes and measuresSerologic noninferiority of neutralizing antibody responses compared with those in young adults (aged 18-25 years) in PREVENT-19, protective efficacy against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, and assessment of reactogenicity and safety.ResultsAmong 2232 participants (1487 NVX-CoV2373 and 745 placebo recipients), the mean (SD) age was 13.8 (1.4) years, 1172 (52.5%) were male, 1660 (74.4%) were White individuals, and 359 (16.1%) had had a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline. After vaccination, the ratio of neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers in adolescents compared with those in young adults was 1.5 (95% CI, 1.3-1.7). Twenty mild COVID-19 cases occurred after a median of 64 (IQR, 57-69) days of follow-up, including 6 among NVX-CoV2373 recipients (incidence, 2.90 [95% CI, 1.31-6.46] cases per 100 person-years) and 14 among placebo recipients (incidence, 14.20 [95% CI, 8.42-23.93] cases per 100 person-years), yielding a vaccine efficacy of 79.5% (95% CI, 46.8%-92.1%). Vaccine efficacy for the Delta variant (the only viral variant identified by sequencing [n = 11]) was 82.0% (95% CI, 32.4%-95.2%). Reactogenicity was largely mild to moderate and transient, with a trend toward greater frequency after the second dose of NVX-CoV2373. Serious adverse events were rare and balanced between treatments. No adverse events led to study discontinuation.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this randomized clinical trial indicate that NVX-CoV2373 is safe, immunogenic, and efficacious in preventing COVID-19, including the predominant Delta variant, in adolescents.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04611802.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections are a serious threat in intensive care units (ICUs). The aim of this confirmatory, randomized, multicenter, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2/3 study was to assess the efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of IC43 recombinant Pseudomonas aeruginosa vaccine in non-surgical ICU patients. METHODS:Eight hundred patients aged 18 to 80 years admitted to the ICU with expected need for mechanical ventilation for ≥ 48 h were randomized 1:1 to either IC43 100 μg or saline placebo, given in two vaccinations 7 days apart. The primary efficacy endpoint was all-cause mortality in patients 28 days after the first vaccination. Immunogenicity and safety were also evaluated. FINDINGS:All-cause mortality rates at day 28 were 29.2% vs 27.7% in the IC43 and placebo groups, respectively (P = .67). Overall survival (Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, P = .46) and proportion of patients with ≥ one confirmed P. aeruginosa invasive infection or respiratory tract infection also did not differ significantly between both groups. The geometric mean fold increase in OprF/I titers was 1.5 after the first vaccination, 20 at day 28, after the second vaccination, and 2.9 at day 180. Significantly more patients in the placebo group (96.5%) had ≥ one adverse event (AE) versus the IC43 100 μg group (93.1%) (P = .04). The most frequently reported severe AEs in the IC43 and placebo groups were respiratory failure (6.9% vs 5.7%, respectively), septic shock (4.1% vs 6.5%), cardiac arrest (4.3% vs 5.7%), multiorgan failure (4.6% vs 5.5%), and sepsis (4.6% vs 4.2%). No related serious AEs were reported in the IC43 group. INTERPRETATION:The IC43 100 μg vaccine was well tolerated in this large population of medically ill, mechanically ventilated patients. The vaccine achieved high immunogenicity but provided no clinical benefit over placebo in terms of overall mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION:https://clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01563263). Registration was sent to ClinicalTrials.gov on March 14, 2012, but posted by ClinicalTrials.gov on March 26, 2012. The first subject was included in the trial on March 22, 2012.

Project description:Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the etiological agent of Johne's disease (JD) in ruminants, establishes a prolonged and often lifelong enteric infection. The implementation of control measures for bovine JD has faced obstacles due to the considerable expenses involved in disease surveillance and hindered by unreliable and inadequate diagnostic tests, emphasizing the need for an effective vaccine that can stimulate mucosal immunity in the gastrointestinal tract. Previous investigations have demonstrated that deletion of the BacA gene in MAP produces an attenuated strain that can transiently colonize the calf small intestine while retaining its capacity to stimulate systemic immune responses similar to wildtype MAP strains. This study assessed the efficacy of the BacA gene deletion MAP strain, referred to as the BacA vaccine, when administered orally to young calves. The research aimed to evaluate its effectiveness in controlling MAP intestinal infection and to investigate the immune responses elicited by mucosal vaccination. The study represents the first evaluation of an enteric modified live MAP vaccine in the context of an oral MAP challenge in young calves. Oral immunization with BacA reduced MAP colonization specifically in the ileum and ileocecal valve. This partially protective immune response was associated with an increased frequency of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells with a pro-inflammatory phenotype (IFNγ+/TNFα+) in vaccinated animals. Moreover, re-stimulated PBMCs from vaccinated animals showed increased expression of IFNγ, IP-10, IL-2, and IL-17 at 10- and 12-weeks post challenge. Furthermore, immunophenotyping of blood leukocytes revealed that vaccinated calves had increased levels of T cells expressing cell-surface markers consistent with long-term central memory. Overall, our findings provide new insights into the development and immunogenicity of a modified live MAP vaccine against bovine JD, demonstrating oral vaccination can stimulate host immune responses that can be protective against enteric MAP infection.

Project description:BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein, inducing antibodies associated with the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection. We assessed the association between anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres and the magnitude and duration of vaccine efficacy using data from a phase 3 trial done between 2009 and 2014.MethodsUsing data from 8922 African children aged 5-17 months and 6537 African infants aged 6-12 weeks at first vaccination, we analysed the determinants of immunogenicity after RTS,S/AS01 vaccination with or without a booster dose. We assessed the association between the incidence of clinical malaria and anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres using a model of anti-circumsporozoite antibody dynamics and the natural acquisition of protective immunity over time.FindingsRTS,S/AS01-induced anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres were greater in children aged 5-17 months than in those aged 6-12 weeks. Pre-vaccination anti-circumsporozoite titres were associated with lower immunogenicity in children aged 6-12 weeks and higher immunogenicity in those aged 5-17 months. The immunogenicity of the booster dose was strongly associated with immunogenicity after primary vaccination. Anti-circumsporozoite titres wane according to a biphasic exponential distribution. In participants aged 5-17 months, the half-life of the short-lived component of the antibody response was 45 days (95% credible interval 42-48) and that of the long-lived component was 591 days (557-632). After primary vaccination 12% (11-13) of the response was estimated to be long-lived, rising to 30% (28-32%) after a booster dose. An anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre of 121 EU/mL (98-153) was estimated to prevent 50% of infections. Waning anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres predict the duration of efficacy against clinical malaria across different age categories and transmission intensities, and efficacy wanes more rapidly at higher transmission intensity.InterpretationAnti-circumsporozoite antibody titres are a surrogate of protection for the magnitude and duration of RTS,S/AS01 efficacy, with or without a booster dose, providing a valuable surrogate of effectiveness for new RTS,S formulations in the age groups considered.FundingUK Medical Research Council.

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A method to estimate probability of disease and vaccine efficacy from clinical trial immunogenicity data.

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A method to estimate probability of disease and vaccine efficacy from clinical trial immunogenicity data.

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