Modelling the effect of a border closure between Switzerland and Italy on the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland.

ABSTRACT: We present an approach to extend the endemic-epidemic (EE) modelling framework for the analysis of infectious disease data. In its spatiotemporal formulation, spatial dependencies have originally been captured by static neighbourhood matrices. These weight matrices are adjusted over time to reflect changes in spatial connectivity between geographical units. We illustrate this extension by modelling the spread of COVID-19 disease between Swiss and bordering Italian regions in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The spatial weights are adjusted with data describing the daily changes in population mobility patterns, and indicators of border closures describing the state of travel restrictions since the beginning of the pandemic. These time-dependent weights are used to fit an EE model to

SUBMITTER: Grimee M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8579705 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature