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Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome.

ABSTRACT: Net zero greenhouse gas targets have become a central element for climate action. However, most company and government pledges focus on the year that net zero is reached, with limited awareness of how critical the emissions pathway is in determining the climate outcome in both the near- and long-term. Here we show that different pathways of carbon dioxide and methane-the most prominent long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases, respectively-can lead to nearly 0.4 °C of warming difference in midcentury and potential overshoot of the 2 °C target, even if they technically reach global net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. While all paths achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals in the long-term, there is still a 0.2 °C difference by end-of-century. We find that early action to reduce both emissions of carbon dioxide and methane simultaneously leads to the best climate outcomes over all timescales. We therefore recommend that companies and countries supplement net zero targets with a two-basket set of interim milestones to ensure that early action is taken for both carbon dioxide and methane. A one-basket approach, such as the standard format for Nationally Determined Contributions, is not sufficient because it can lead to a delay in methane mitigation.

SUBMITTER: Sun T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8589977 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome.

Sun Tianyi T Ocko Ilissa B IB Sturcken Elizabeth E Hamburg Steven P SP

Scientific reports 20211112 1

Net zero greenhouse gas targets have become a central element for climate action. However, most company and government pledges focus on the year that net zero is reached, with limited awareness of how critical the emissions pathway is in determining the climate outcome in both the near- and long-term. Here we show that different pathways of carbon dioxide and methane-the most prominent long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases, respectively-can lead to nearly 0.4 °C of warming difference in mi ...[more]

PMID: 34772989

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Project description:Refractory High-Entropy Alloys (RHEAs), such as NbMoTaW, MoNbTaVW, HfNbTaZr, Re0.1Hf0.25NbTaW0.4, Nb40Ti25Al15V10Ta5Hf3W2, TixNbMoTaW (x = 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 1), and 3d transition metal HEAs such as Al10.3Co17Cr7.5Fe9Ni48.6Ti5.8Ta0.6Mo0.8W0.4 have demonstrated superior performance compared to traditional superalloys, particularly in high-temperature applications for engine components. However, the development of these alloys often depends on critical raw materials (CRMs) such as Ta, W, Nb, Hf, and others. The reliance on critical raw materials (CRMs) not only generates substantial emissions during recycling processes but also imposes considerable risks across global supply chains, hindering the pursuit of Net-zero ambitions. In this pioneering work, we unveil an inventive approach to inversely predict novel multicomponent alloy compositions, meticulously crafted to eliminate CRMs while achieving hardness levels comparable to those of CRM-containing multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs). A robust machine learning (ML) model was developed using a computational database of 3,608 entries, covering unary and binary materials from the Thermo-Calc 2024a software. Among various ML models, the Extra Trees Regressor (ETR) exhibited superior performance and was integrated with metaheuristic optimization techniques to identify novel MPEA compositions. The Cuckoo Search Optimization (CSO) method produced reduced-CRM MPEAs that closely matched Thermo-Calc predictions, with an error margin below ± 20%. To assess the efficacy of these reduced-CRM MPEAs, we compared the hardness of newly synthesized MPEA with CRM-containing counterparts reported in the literature, particularly those with high-risk critical raw materials like Niobium (Nb) and Tantalum (Ta). For example, the CoCrFeNb0.309Ni alloy, which includes CRMs Nb and Co exhibits a Vickers hardness of 480 HV. In contrast, our proposed composition, Ti0.01111NiFe0.4Cu0.4 achieves a comparable hardness of 488 HV without using a CRM. Our objective was not to develop high hardness alloy but to facilitate the development of reduced-CRM multi-principal element alloys (R-CRM-MPEAs). We validated our computational approach through the experimental synthesis of an FCC-phase alloy, Al6.25Cu18.75Fe25Co25Ni25. Thermo-Calc evaluation and ML model predictions of the Vickers hardness showed excellent agreement with the experimental hardness values, which lends credence to our approach. In conclusion, this study provides a robust framework for accelerating the discovery of novel R-CRM-MPEAs, effectively addressing challenges related to supply chain vulnerabilities, import dependence, and related environmental concerns.

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Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome.

Publications

Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome.

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