Dataset Information

Understanding the Factors Affecting COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Does a Relationship Exist With a Sharp Increase in Intensive Care Unit Admissions?

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The present study aims to explore whether a relationship exists between the immediate sharp increase in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and the mortality rates in Italy.

Methods

Official epidemiological data on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were employed. The forward lagged (0, 3, 7, 14 days) daily variations in the number of deaths according to the number of days after the outbreak started and the daily increases in ICU admissions were estimated.

Results

A direct relationship between the sharp increase of ICU admissions and mortality rates has been shown. Furthermore, the analysis of the forward lagged daily variations in the number of deaths showed that an increase in the daily number of ICU admissions resulted in significantly higher mortality after 3, 7, and 14 days. The most pronounced effect was detected after 7 days, with 250 deaths (95% CI: 108.1-392.8) for the highest increase in the ICU admissions, from 100 to 200.

Conclusions

These results would serve as a warning for the scientific community and the health care decision-makers to prevent a quick and out-of-control saturation of the ICU beds in case of a relapse of the COVID-19 outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Lorenzoni G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8593373 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Understanding the Factors Affecting COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Does a Relationship Exist With a Sharp Increase in Intensive Care Unit Admissions?

Lorenzoni Giulia G Azzolina Danila D Acar Aslihan Şentürk AŞ Silvestri Luciano L Berchialla Paola P Gregori Dario D

Disaster medicine and public health preparedness 20211015

<h4>Objective</h4>The present study aims to explore whether a relationship exists between the immediate sharp increase in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and the mortality rates in Italy.<h4>Methods</h4>Official epidemiological data on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were employed. The forward lagged (0, 3, 7, 14 days) daily variations in the number of deaths according to the number of days after the outbreak started and the daily increases in ICU admissions were estimated.<h4>Results</h4>A ...[more]

PMID: 34649630

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Project description:ImportanceIncreased patient acuity, decreased intensive care unit (ICU) bed availability, and a shortage of intensivist physicians have led to strained ICU capacity. The resulting increase in emergency department (ED) boarding time for patients requiring ICU-level care has been associated with worse outcomes.ObjectiveTo determine the association of a novel ED-based ICU, the Emergency Critical Care Center (EC3), with 30-day mortality and inpatient ICU admission.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used electronic health records of all ED visits between September 1, 2012, and July 31, 2017, with a documented clinician encounter at a large academic medical center in the United States with approximately 75 000 adult ED visits per year. The pre-EC3 cohort included ED patients from September 2, 2012, to February 15, 2015, when the EC3 opened, and the post-EC3 cohort included ED patients from February 16, 2015, to July 31, 2017. Data analyses were conducted from March 2, 2018, to May 28, 2019.ExposuresImplementation of EC3, an ED-based ICU designed to provide rapid initiation of ICU-level care in the ED setting and seamless transition to inpatient ICUs.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcomes were 30-day mortality among ED patients and rate of ED to ICU admission.ResultsA total of 349 310 visits from a consecutive sample of ED patients (mean [SD] age, 48.5 [19.7] years; 189 709 [54.3%] women) were examined; the pre-EC3 cohort included 168 877 visits and the post-EC3 cohort included 180 433 visits. Implementation of EC3 was associated with a statistically significant reduction in risk-adjusted 30-day mortality among all ED patients (pre-EC3, 2.13%; post-EC3, 1.83%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80-0.90; number needed to treat, 333 patient encounters; 95% CI, 256-476). The risk-adjusted rate of ED admission to ICU decreased with implementation of EC3 (pre-EC3, 3.2%; post-EC3, 2.7%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.76-0.83; number needed to treat, 179 patient encounters; 95% CI, 149-217).Conclusions and relevanceImplementation of a novel ED-based ICU was associated with improved 30-day survival and reduced inpatient ICU admission. Additional research is warranted to further explore the value of this novel care delivery model in various health care systems.

Project description:ImportanceHigh health care costs encourage initiatives that avoid overuse of resources and identify opportunities to promote appropriate care.ObjectiveTo investigate the causes of potentially avoidable surgical intensive care unit (SICU) admissions and disposition delays to determine whether targeted interventions could decrease these stays.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective, observational study focused on potentially avoidable SICU days, as determined by observers with input from the rounding intensivists at a 24-bed open SICU at an urban, academic hospital. The preintervention phase occurred from April 6 through June 21, 2015; after implementation of targeted interventions, the postintervention phase occurred from April 4 through June 28, 2016. Data collected included demographic characteristics, reason for admission, and length of stay. All patients admitted to the SICU during the preintervention and postintervention phases were included in the analysis.InterventionsBased on results collected in the preintervention phase, targeted interventions were designed and implemented from July 1, 2015, through March 31, 2016, including (1) reducing SICU care for minor traumatic brain injury, (2) optimizing postoperative airway management, (3) enhancing communication between services regarding transfers to the SICU, (4) identifying and facilitating more timely end-of-life conversations and supportive care consultations, and (5) encouraging early disposition of patients to floor beds.Main outcomes and measuresChanges in the proportion of potentially avoidable SICU days owing to potentially avoidable admissions and/or disposition delays.ResultsA total of 459 patients (253 men [55.1%] and 206 women [44.9%]; median age, 62 years [interquartile range, 46-75 years]) were admitted during the preintervention and postintervention phases. Of 261 patients admitted during the preintervention period and 245 during the postintervention period, median SICU and hospital length of stay remained unchanged. A reduction was noted in the percentage of postintervention SICU days owing to potentially avoidable admissions (152 of 1168 days [13%] vs 118 of 1338 days [8.8%]; P = .001) and disposition delays (138 of 1168 days [11.8%] vs 97 of 1338 days [7.2%]; P < .001). During the postintervention period, decreases were noted in the SICU days related to the most common sources of potentially avoidable admissions (SICU stay ≤24 hours, airway concerns, and somnolence) and disposition delays (end-of-life decisions and floor bed unavailable) as well as in the overall rate of potentially avoidable days (269 of 1168 days [23%] vs 205 of 1338 days [15.3%]; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceNearly one-fourth of SICU days could be categorized as potentially avoidable. Targeted interventions resulted in a significant reduction of potentially avoidable SICU days.

Project description:ImportanceData on the association of COVID-19 vaccination with intensive care unit (ICU) admission and outcomes of patients with SARS-CoV-2-related pneumonia are scarce.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether COVID-19 vaccination is associated with preventing ICU admission for COVID-19 pneumonia and to compare baseline characteristics and outcomes of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients admitted to an ICU.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study on regional data sets reports: (1) daily number of administered vaccines and (2) data of all consecutive patients admitted to an ICU in Lombardy, Italy, from August 1 to December 15, 2021 (Delta variant predominant). Vaccinated patients received either mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) or adenoviral vector vaccines (ChAdOx1-S or Ad26.COV2). Incident rate ratios (IRRs) were computed from August 1, 2021, to January 31, 2022; ICU and baseline characteristics and outcomes of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients admitted to an ICU were analyzed from August 1 to December 15, 2021.ExposuresCOVID-19 vaccination status (no vaccination, mRNA vaccine, adenoviral vector vaccine).Main outcomes and measuresThe incidence IRR of ICU admission was evaluated, comparing vaccinated people with unvaccinated, adjusted for age and sex. The baseline characteristics at ICU admission of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients were investigated. The association between vaccination status at ICU admission and mortality at ICU and hospital discharge were also studied, adjusting for possible confounders.ResultsAmong the 10 107 674 inhabitants of Lombardy, Italy, at the time of this study, the median [IQR] age was 48 [28-64] years and 5 154 914 (51.0%) were female. Of the 7 863 417 individuals who were vaccinated (median [IQR] age: 53 [33-68] years; 4 010 343 [51.4%] female), 6 251 417 (79.5%) received an mRNA vaccine, 550 439 (7.0%) received an adenoviral vector vaccine, and 1 061 561 (13.5%) received a mix of vaccines and 4 497 875 (57.2%) were boosted. Compared with unvaccinated people, IRR of individuals who received an mRNA vaccine within 120 days from the last dose was 0.03 (95% CI, 0.03-0.04; P < .001), whereas IRR of individuals who received an adenoviral vector vaccine after 120 days was 0.21 (95% CI, 0.19-0.24; P < .001). There were 553 patients admitted to an ICU for COVID-19 pneumonia during the study period: 139 patients (25.1%) were vaccinated and 414 (74.9%) were unvaccinated. Compared with unvaccinated patients, vaccinated patients were older (median [IQR]: 72 [66-76] vs 60 [51-69] years; P < .001), primarily male individuals (110 patients [79.1%] vs 252 patients [60.9%]; P < .001), with more comorbidities (median [IQR]: 2 [1-3] vs 0 [0-1] comorbidities; P < .001) and had higher ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen (Pao2) and fraction of inspiratory oxygen (FiO2) at ICU admission (median [IQR]: 138 [100-180] vs 120 [90-158] mm Hg; P = .007). Factors associated with ICU and hospital mortality were higher age, premorbid heart disease, lower Pao2/FiO2 at ICU admission, and female sex (this factor only for ICU mortality). ICU and hospital mortality were similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, mRNA and adenoviral vector vaccines were associated with significantly lower risk of ICU admission for COVID-19 pneumonia. ICU and hospital mortality were not associated with vaccinated status. These findings suggest a substantial reduction of the risk of developing COVID-19-related severe acute respiratory failure requiring ICU admission among vaccinated people.

Project description:BackgroundEmergency departments (EDs) see a rising number of patients, but only a small fraction of ED patients need immediate intensive care. The characteristics of these patients are mostly unknown and there is reason to believe that there are large inter-hospital differences in thresholds for intensive care admissions from the ED. The purpose of this study was to give a nationwide overview of ED admissions directly to intensive care units.MethodsWe used the Swedish Intensive care Registry to identify all patients admitted to intensive care from the ED (January 1, 2013 until June 7, 2018). The primary outcome was discharge diagnosis after intensive care (primary ICU diagnosis code). ICU mortality and" ICU admission due to only observation" were analyzed as secondary outcomes.Results110,072 ICU admissions were included, representing 94,546 unique patients. Intoxication, trauma and neurological conditions were the most common causes for intensive care, but large variations according to age, sex and hospital type were seen. Intoxication was the most prevalent diagnosis in young adults (46.8% of admissions in 18-29 years old), whereas infectious diseases predominated in the elderly (17.0% in 65-79 years old). Overall, ICU mortality was 7.2%, but varied substantially with age, sex, type of hospital and medical condition. Cardiac conditions had the highest mortality rates, reaching 32.9%. The mortality was higher in academic centers compared to rural hospitals (9.3% vs 5.0%). It was more common to be admitted to ICU for only observation in rural hospitals than in academic centers (20.1% vs 7.8%). Being admitted to ICU only for observation was most common in patients with intoxication (30.6%).ConclusionsOverall, intoxication was the most common cause for ICU admission from the ED. However, causes of ED ICU admissions differ substantially according to age, sex and hospital type. Being admitted to the ICU only for observation was most common in intoxicated patients.Trial registrationNot applicable (no interventions).

Dataset Information

Understanding the Factors Affecting COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Does a Relationship Exist With a Sharp Increase in Intensive Care Unit Admissions?

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Understanding the Factors Affecting COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Does a Relationship Exist With a Sharp Increase in Intensive Care Unit Admissions?

Similar Datasets

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