Dataset Information

Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Databases: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP).

ABSTRACT:

Background/aims

Several prediction models for evaluating the prognosis of nonmetastatic resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have been developed, and their performances were reported to be superior to that of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. We developed a prediction model to evaluate the prognosis of resected PDAC and externally validated it with data from a nationwide Korean database.

Methods

Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were utilized for model development, and data from the Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP) database were used for external validation. Potential candidate variables for model development were age, sex, histologic differentiation, tumor location, adjuvant chemotherapy, and the AJCC 8th staging system T and N stages. For external validation, the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were evaluated.

Results

Between 2004 and 2016, data from 9,624 patients were utilized for model development, and data from 3,282 patients were used for external validation. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, age, sex, tumor location, T and N stages, histologic differentiation, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for resected PDAC. After an exhaustive search and 10-fold cross validation, the best model was finally developed, which included all prognostic variables. The C-index, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year time-dependent AUCs were 0.628, 0.650, 0.665, 0.675, and 0.686, respectively.

Conclusions

The survival prediction model for resected PDAC could provide quantitative survival probabilities with reliable performance. External validation studies with other nationwide databases are needed to evaluate the performance of this model.

SUBMITTER: Kang JS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8593502 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Databases: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP).

Kang Jae Seung JS Mok Lydia L Heo Jin Seok JS Han In Woong IW Shin Sang Hyun SH Yoon Yoo-Seok YS Han Ho-Seong HS Hwang Dae Wook DW Lee Jae Hoon JH Lee Woo Jung WJ Park Sang Jae SJ Park Joon Seong JS Kim Yonghoon Y Lee Huisong H Yu Young-Dong YD Yang Jae Do JD Lee Seung Eun SE Park Il Young IY Jeong Chi-Young CY Roh Younghoon Y Kim Seong-Ryong SR Moon Ju Ik JI Lee Sang Kuon SK Kim Hee Joon HJ Lee Seungyeoun S Kim Hongbeom H Kwon Wooil W Lim Chang-Sup CS Jang Jin-Young JY Park Taesung T

Gut and liver 20211101 6

<h4>Background/aims</h4>Several prediction models for evaluating the prognosis of nonmetastatic resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have been developed, and their performances were reported to be superior to that of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. We developed a prediction model to evaluate the prognosis of resected PDAC and externally validated it with data from a nationwide Korean database.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from the Surveillance, ...[more]

PMID: 33941710

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Dataset Information

Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Databases: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP).

Background/aims

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Databases: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP).

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