Dataset Information

Revealing drivers and risks for power grid frequency stability with explainable AI.

ABSTRACT: Stable operation of an electric power system requires strict operational limits for the grid frequency. Fluctuations and external impacts can cause large frequency deviations and increased control efforts. Although these complex interdependencies can be modeled using machine learning algorithms, the black box character of many models limits insights and applicability. In this article, we introduce an explainable machine learning model that accurately predicts frequency stability indicators for three European synchronous areas. Using Shapley additive explanations, we identify key features and risk factors for frequency stability. We show how load and generation ramps determine frequency gradients, and we identify three classes of generation technologies with converse impacts. Control efforts vary strongly depending on the grid and time of day and are driven by ramps as well as electricity prices. Notably, renewable power generation is central only in the British grid, while forecasting errors play a major role in the Nordic grid.

SUBMITTER: Kruse J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8600233 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Revealing drivers and risks for power grid frequency stability with explainable AI.

Kruse Johannes J Schäfer Benjamin B Witthaut Dirk D

Patterns (New York, N.Y.) 20211008 11

Stable operation of an electric power system requires strict operational limits for the grid frequency. Fluctuations and external impacts can cause large frequency deviations and increased control efforts. Although these complex interdependencies can be modeled using machine learning algorithms, the black box character of many models limits insights and applicability. In this article, we introduce an explainable machine learning model that accurately predicts frequency stability indicators for t ...[more]

PMID: 34820648

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Project description:Artificial intelligence (AI) provides considerable opportunities to assist human work. However, one crucial challenge of human-AI collaboration is that many AI algorithms operate in a black-box manner where the way how the AI makes predictions remains opaque. This makes it difficult for humans to validate a prediction made by AI against their own domain knowledge. For this reason, we hypothesize that augmenting humans with explainable AI improves task performance in human-AI collaboration. To test this hypothesis, we implement explainable AI in the form of visual heatmaps in inspection tasks conducted by domain experts. Visual heatmaps have the advantage that they are easy to understand and help to localize relevant parts of an image. We then compare participants that were either supported by (a) black-box AI or (b) explainable AI, where the latter supports them to follow AI predictions when the AI is accurate or overrule the AI when the AI predictions are wrong. We conducted two preregistered experiments with representative, real-world visual inspection tasks from manufacturing and medicine. The first experiment was conducted with factory workers from an electronics factory, who performed [Formula: see text] assessments of whether electronic products have defects. The second experiment was conducted with radiologists, who performed [Formula: see text] assessments of chest X-ray images to identify lung lesions. The results of our experiments with domain experts performing real-world tasks show that task performance improves when participants are supported by explainable AI with heatmaps instead of black-box AI. We find that explainable AI as a decision aid improved the task performance by 7.7 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3% to 12.0%, [Formula: see text]) in the manufacturing experiment and by 4.7 percentage points (95% CI: 1.1% to 8.3%, [Formula: see text]) in the medical experiment compared to black-box AI. These gains represent a significant improvement in task performance.

Dataset Information

Revealing drivers and risks for power grid frequency stability with explainable AI.

Publications

Revealing drivers and risks for power grid frequency stability with explainable AI.

Similar Datasets

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