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Are Monthly Market Returns Predictable?

ABSTRACT: We document significant persistence in the market timing performance of active individual investors, suggesting that some investors are skilled at timing. Using data on all trades by active Finnish individual investors over almost 15 years, we also show that the net purchases of skilled versus unskilled investors predict monthly market returns. Our results lend credibility to the view that market returns are predictable, without having to specify which variables active investors use to successfully time the market. (JEL G10, G11, G12, G14, G15).

SUBMITTER: Keppo J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8601754 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Are Monthly Market Returns Predictable?

Keppo Jussi J Shumway Tyler T Weagley Daniel D

Review of asset pricing studies 20210410 4

We document significant persistence in the market timing performance of active individual investors, suggesting that some investors are skilled at timing. Using data on all trades by active Finnish individual investors over almost 15 years, we also show that the net purchases of skilled versus unskilled investors predict monthly market returns. Our results lend credibility to the view that market returns are predictable, without having to specify which variables active investors use to successfu ...[more]

PMID: 34812276

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