Temporal clustering of Kawasaki disease cases around the world.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Burney JA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8605018 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Temporal clustering of Kawasaki disease cases around the world.
Burney Jennifer A JA DeHaan Laurel L LL Shimizu Chisato C Bainto Emelia V EV Newburger Jane W JW DeBiasi Roberta L RL Dominguez Samuel R SR Portman Michael A MA Melish Marian M Bratincsak Andras A Fabi Marianna M Corinaldesi Elena E Yu Jeong Jin JJ Gee Paul P Kitano Naomi N Tremoulet Adriana H AH Cayan Daniel R DR Burns Jane C JC
Scientific reports 20211119 1
In a single-site study (San Diego, CA, USA), we previously showed that Kawasaki Disease (KD) cases cluster temporally in bursts of approximately 7 days. These clusters occurred more often than would be expected at random even after accounting for long-term trends and seasonality. This finding raised the question of whether other locations around the world experience similar temporal clusters of KD that might offer clues to disease etiology. Here we combine data from San Diego and nine additional ...[more]
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Project description:ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that cases of Kawasaki disease within a temporal cluster have a similar pattern of host response that is distinct from cases of Kawasaki disease in different observed clusters and randomly constructed clusters.Study designWe designed a case-control study to analyze 47 clusters derived from 1332 patients with Kawasaki disease over a 17-year period (2002-2019) from a single clinical site and compared the cluster characteristics with those of 2 control groups of synthetic Kawasaki disease clusters. We defined a "true" Kawasaki disease cluster as at least 5 patients within a 7-day moving window. The observed and synthetic Kawasaki disease clusters were compared with respect to demographic and clinical characteristics and median values for standard laboratory data using univariate analysis and a multivariate, rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis.ResultsIn a univariate analysis, the median values for age, coronary artery z-score, white blood cell count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, and age-adjusted hemoglobin for several of the true Kawasaki disease clusters exceeded the 95th percentile for the 2 synthetic clusters. REOF analyses revealed distinct patterns of demographic and clinical measures within clusters.ConclusionsCases of Kawasaki disease within a cluster were more similar with respect to demographic and clinical features and levels of inflammation than would be expected by chance. These observations suggest that different triggers and/or different intensities of exposures result in clusters of cases of Kawasaki disease that share a similar response pattern. Analyzing cases within clusters or cases who share demographic and clinical features may lead to new insights into the etiology of Kawasaki disease.
| S-EPMC7506475 | biostudies-literature
Project description:At the end of the year 2019, a virus named SARS-CoV-2 induced the coronavirus disease, which is very contagious and quickly spread around the world. This new infectious disease is called COVID-19. Numerous areas, such as the economy, social services, education, and healthcare system, have suffered grave consequences from the invasion of this deadly virus. Thus, a thorough understanding of the spread of COVID-19 is required in order to deal with this outbreak before it becomes an infectious disaster. In this research, the daily reported COVID-19 cases in 92 sub-districts in Johor state, Malaysia, as well as the population size associated to each sub-district, are used to study the propagation of COVID-19 disease across space and time in Johor. The time frame of this research is about 190 days, which started from August 5, 2021, until February 10, 2022. The clustering technique known as spatio-temporal clustering, which considers the spatio-temporal metric was adapted to determine the hot-spot areas of the COVID-19 disease in Johor at the sub-district level. The results indicated that COVID-19 disease does spike in the dynamic populated sub-districts such as the state's economic centre (Bandar Johor Bahru), and during the festive season. These findings empirically prove that the transmission rate of COVID-19 is directly proportional to human mobility and the presence of holidays. On the other hand, the result of this study will help the authority in charge in stopping and preventing COVID-19 from spreading and become worsen at the national level.
| S-EPMC10879677 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceInfections are proposed to be triggering factors for Kawasaki disease (KD), although its etiological factors remain unknown. Recent reports have indicated a 4- to 6-week lag between SARS-CoV-2 infection and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children with a similar presentation to that of KD.ObjectiveTo investigate the temporal correlation between KD and viral infections, focusing on respiratory viruses.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study was conducted among individuals aged 0 to 19 years diagnosed with KD between January 2010 and September 2020 from the Korean National Health Insurance Service. Data on infectious disease outbreaks from 2016 to 2019 were collected from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Korean Influenza and Respiratory Virus Monitoring System, Korea Enteroviruses Surveillance System, and the Enteric Pathogens Active Surveillance Network in South Korea. Data were analyzed from December 2020 to October 2021.Main outcomes and measuresNational databases for infectious diseases were used for a time-series analysis of the correlation between viral infections and KD. The temporal correlation between infectious disease outbreaks and KD outbreaks was evaluated using the Granger causality test (G-test), which is a useful tool to estimate correlations between 2 time series of diseases based on time lags.ResultsOverall, 53 424 individuals with KD were identified, including 22 510 (42.1%) females and 30 914 (57.9%) males and 44 276 individuals (82.9%) younger than 5 years. Intravenous immunoglobulin-resistant KD was identified in 9042 individuals (16.9%), and coronary artery abnormalities were identified in 384 individuals (0.7%). Of 14 infectious diseases included in the analyses, rhinovirus infection outbreaks were identified as significantly correlated at 1 to 3 months before KD outbreaks in South Korea (r = 0.3; 1 month: P < .001; 2 months: P < .001; 3 months: P < .001). Outbreaks of respiratory syncytial virus infection were identified as significantly correlated with KD outbreaks by 2 months (r = 0.5; 2 months: P < .001). Additionally, varicella outbreaks were identified as significantly correlated at 2 and 3 months before KD outbreaks (r = 0.7; 2 months: P < .001; 3 months: P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study with a time series analysis of children and youth in South Korea with KD, respiratory infections caused by rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus and varicella outbreaks were significantly correlated with KD at 1 to 3 months before KD outbreaks.
| S-EPMC8822386 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Kawasaki Disease (KD) is the most common cause of pediatric acquired heart disease, but its etiology remains unknown. We examined 1164 cases of KD treated at a regional children's hospital in San Diego over a period of 15 years and uncovered novel structure to disease incidence. KD cases showed a well-defined seasonal variability, but also clustered temporally at much shorter time scales (days to weeks), and spatiotemporally on time scales of up to 10 days and spatial scales of 10-100 km. Temporal clusters of KD cases were associated with strongly significant regional-scale air temperature anomalies and consistent larger-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Gene expression analysis further revealed a natural partitioning of KD patients into distinct groups based on their gene expression pattern, and that the different groups were associated with certain clinical characteristics that also exhibit temporal autocorrelation. Our data suggest that one or more environmental triggers exist, and that episodic exposures are modulated at least in part by regional weather conditions. We propose that characterization of the environmental factors that trigger KD in genetically susceptible children should focus on aerosols inhaled by patients who share common disease characteristics.
| S-EPMC6232126 | biostudies-literature
Project description:An environmental trigger has been proposed as an inciting factor in the development of anti-GBM disease. This multicenter, observational study sought to define the national incidence of anti-GBM disease during an 11-year period (2003-2014) in Ireland, investigate clustering of cases in time and space, and assess the effect of spatial variability in incidence on outcome.We ascertained cases by screening immunology laboratories for instances of positivity for anti-GBM antibody and the national renal histopathology registry for biopsy-proven cases. The population at risk was defined from national census data. We used a variable-window scan statistic to detect temporal clustering. A Bayesian spatial model was used to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for each of the 26 counties.Seventy-nine cases were included. National incidence was 1.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.82 to 3.35) per million population per year. A temporal cluster (n=10) was identified during a 3-month period; six cases were resident in four rural counties in the southeast. Spatial analysis revealed wide regional variation in SIRs and a cluster (n=7) in the northwest (SIR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.06). There were 29 deaths and 57 cases of ESRD during a mean follow-up of 2.9 years. Greater distance from diagnosis site to treating center, stratified by median distance traveled, did not significantly affect patient (hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% CI, 0.87 to 3.77) or renal (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.40 to 1.13) survival.To our knowledge, this is the first study to report national incidence rates of anti-GBM disease and formally investigate patterns of incidence. Clustering of cases in time and space supports the hypothesis of an environmental trigger for disease onset. The substantial variability in regional incidence highlights the need for comprehensive country-wide studies to improve our understanding of the etiology of anti-GBM disease.
| S-EPMC4974897 | biostudies-other
Project description:ObjectivesThe first and second demographic transitions have led to profound changes in family networks. However, the timing and extent of these transitions vary widely across contexts. We examine how common it is for contemporary older adults to lack living kin and whether such individuals are uniformly disadvantaged around the world.MethodsUsing surveys from 34 countries that together contain 69.6% of the world's population over age 50 and come from all regions of the world, we describe the prevalence and correlates of lacking immediate kin. We examine macro-level demographic indicators associated with the prevalence of kinlessness as well as micro-level associations between kinlessness and sociodemographic and health indicators.ResultsThere is great variation in levels of kinlessness, from over 10% with neither a spouse nor a biological child in Canada, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Switzerland to levels below 2% in China and the Republic of Korea. There are strong macro-level relationships between kinlessness and lagged or contemporaneous fertility, mortality, and nuptiality measures and more marginal relationships with other demographic forces. Micro-level associations between kinlessness and respondent attributes are varied. The kinless are more likely to live alone than those with kin in all countries. In most countries, they have equivalent or worse self-rated health and lower education, although there are notable exceptions. There is substantial variation in the gender composition of the kinless population.DiscussionAs demographic changes affecting kinlessness continue, we expect the scale of the kinless population to grow around the world.
| S-EPMC6777763 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Conditional autoregressive models are typically used to capture the spatial autocorrelation present in areal unit disease count data when estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk. This correlation is represented by a binary neighbourhood matrix based on a border sharing specification, which enforces spatial correlation between geographically neighbouring areas. However, enforcing such correlation will mask any discontinuities in the disease risk surface, thus impeding the detection of clusters of areas that exhibit higher or lower risks compared to their neighbours. Here we propose novel methodology to account for these clusters and discontinuities in disease risk via a two-stage modelling approach, which either forces the clusters/discontinuities to be the same for all time periods or allows them to evolve dynamically over time. Stage one constructs a set of candidate neighbourhood matrices to represent a range of possible cluster/discontinuity structures in the data, and stage two estimates an appropriate structure(s) by treating the neighbourhood matrix as an additional parameter to estimate within a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model. The effectiveness of our novel methodology is evidenced by simulation, before being applied to a new study of respiratory disease risk in Greater Glasgow, Scotland from 2011 to 2017.
| S-EPMC9245163 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We extract data on physiological aging by computing a frailty index for 201 countries over the period 1990-2019. Using panel estimation techniques, we show that the macro frailty index replicates basic regularities previously observed in related studies of aging at the individual level. We then use the frailty index to highlight trends of global physiological aging and its relationship to economic growth. Holding population age structure fixed, the global frailty index has on average increased by about 2 percent over the last 30 years. The average person has therefore aged by what corresponds to about one life-year of physiological aging. This overall trend is relatively similar across different geographical regions. We also document a negative relationship between physiological aging of the workforce and economic growth. According to our preferred specification, a one percent increase in the frailty index of the workforce is associated with a 1.5 percent decline of GDP per capita. This means that average annual growth of labor productivity would have been 0.1 percentage points higher without physiological aging in the period 1990-2019.
| S-EPMC9176773 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The purpose of this study was to identify the clinical features and laboratory factors that are predictive of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG)-resistant Kawasaki disease. Multiple databases were searched for relevant studies on IVIG-resistant Kawasaki disease published from January 2002 to April 2017. Eligible studies were retrieved by manual review of the references. Stata 12 was used for the meta-analysis. Weighted mean differences and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for several indices. Twenty-eight studies involving 26,260 patients comprising 4442 IVIG-resistant Kawasaki disease patients and 21,818 IVIG-sensitive Kawasaki disease patients were included. The meta-analysis showed that the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) in the IVIG-resistant group was significantly higher than that in the IVIG-sensitive group, and that platelet count and hemoglobin levels were significantly lower in the IVIG-resistant group. The patients with oral mucosa alterations, cervical lymphadenopathy, swelling of the extremities, polymorphous rash, and initial administration of IVIG ≤ 4.0 days after the onset of symptoms were more likely to be IVIG resistant.ConclusionThe initial administration of IVIG ≤ 4.0 days after the onset of symptoms increased ESR and decreased hemoglobin and platelet counts, oral mucosa alterations, cervical lymphadenopathy, swelling of the extremities, and polymorphous rash and are the risk factors for IVIG-resistant Kawasaki disease. What is Known: • Recent reports on this topic are about aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), gammaglutamyl transferase, total bilirubin, white blood cells, platelets, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMN), C-reactive protein (CRP), pro-brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), albumin, and sodium as the risk factors in the IVIG-resistant Kawasaki disease; however, no studies have been published on clinical features as predictors of IVIG resistance. What is New: • This meta-analysis identified the clinical features, the initial administration of IVIG ≤ 4.0 days after the onset of symptoms, and much more comprehensive laboratory indicators, such as hemoglobin, as predictors of IVIG-resistant Kawasaki disease.
| S-EPMC6061038 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute self-limited vasculitis and the leading cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries. No etiologic agent(s) has been identified, and the processes that mediate formation of coronary artery aneurysms and abatement of fever following treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) remain poorly understood. Results: In an initial survey, we used DNA microarrays to examine patterns of gene expression in peripheral whole blood from 20 children with KD; each was sampled during the acute, subacute, and convalescent phases of the illness. Acute KD was characterized by increased relative abundance of gene transcripts associated with innate immune and proinflammatory responses and decreased abundance of transcripts associated with natural killer cells and CD8+ lymphocytes. There was significant temporal variation in transcript levels during the acute disease phase and stabilization thereafter. We confirmed these temporal patterns in a second cohort of 64 patients, and identified additional inter-individual differences in transcript abundance. Notably, higher levels of transcripts of the gene for carcinoembryonic antigen-related cell adhesion molecule 1 (CEACAM1) were associated with an increased percentage of unsegmented neutrophils, fewer days of illness, higher levels of C-reactive protein, and subsequent non-response to IVIG; this last association was confirmed by quantitative reverse transcription PCR in a third cohort of 33 patients, and was independent of day of illness. Conclusions: Acute KD is characterized by dynamic and variable gene-expression programs that highlight the importance of neutrophil activation state and apoptosis in KD pathogenesis. Our findings also support the feasibility of extracting biomarkers associated with clinical prognosis from gene-expression profiles of individuals with systemic inflammatory illnesses. Whole blood (PAXgene tubes) was obtained from 64 Kawasaki disease patients prior to treatment. RNA was amplified using the MessageAmp kit (Ambion), and reverse transcribed. Each sample was labelled with Cy5, and hybridized to a Lymphochip cDNA array along with amplified human reference RNA labelled with Cy3(Universal Human Reference RNA, Stratagene). Analysis was restricted to those array elements (LUIDs) with signal intensity/background of at least 2.5 in either channel for at least 80% of the samples, and a regression correlation of 0.6. Patterns of gene expression were correlated with clinical parameters, including subsequent response to treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). A disease state experiment design type is where the state of some disease such as infection, pathology, syndrome, etc is studied. Phenotype: Patient responded (R) or not (NR) to IVIG therapy. Some patients were not classified because they were treated more than 10 days after onset of fever Keywords: disease_state_design
2007-12-13 | GSE9864 | GEO