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Evaluation of model refinement in CASP14.

ABSTRACT: We report here an assessment of the model refinement category of the 14th round of Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP14). As before, predictors submitted up to five ranked refinements, along with associated residue-level error estimates, for targets that had a wide range of starting quality. The ability of groups to accurately rank their submissions and to predict coordinate error varied widely. Overall, only four groups out-performed a "naïve predictor" corresponding to the resubmission of the starting model. Among the top groups, there are interesting differences of approach and in the spread of improvements seen: some methods are more conservative, others more adventurous. Some targets were "double-barreled" for which predictors were offered a high-quality AlphaFold 2 (AF2)-derived prediction alongside another of lower quality. The AF2-derived models were largely unimprovable, many of their apparent errors being found to reside at domain and, especially, crystal lattice contacts. Refinement is shown to have a mixed impact overall on structure-based function annotation methods to predict nucleic acid binding, spot catalytic sites, and dock protein structures.

SUBMITTER: Simpkin AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8616799 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluation of model refinement in CASP14.

Simpkin Adam J AJ Sánchez Rodríguez Filomeno F Mesdaghi Shahram S Kryshtafovych Andriy A Rigden Daniel J DJ

Proteins 20210729 12

We report here an assessment of the model refinement category of the 14th round of Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP14). As before, predictors submitted up to five ranked refinements, along with associated residue-level error estimates, for targets that had a wide range of starting quality. The ability of groups to accurately rank their submissions and to predict coordinate error varied widely. Overall, only four groups out-performed a "naïve predictor" corresponding to the resub ...[more]

PMID: 34288138

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Project description:Predicting the conformations of loops is a critical aspect of protein comparative (homology) modeling. Despite considerable advances in developing loop prediction algorithms, refining loops in homology models remains challenging. In this work, we use antibodies as a model system to investigate strategies for more robustly predicting loop conformations when the protein model contains errors in the conformations of side chains and protein backbone surrounding the loop in question. Specifically, our test system consists of partial models of antibodies in which the "scaffold" (i.e., the portion other than the complementarity determining region, CDR, loops) retains native backbone conformation, whereas the CDR loops are predicted using a combination of knowledge-based modeling (H1, H2, L1, L2, and L3) and ab initio loop prediction (H3). H3 is the most variable of the CDRs. Using a previously published method, a test set of 10 shorter H3 loops (5-7 residues) are predicted to an average backbone (N-C alpha-C-O) RMSD of 2.7 A while 11 longer loops (8-9 residues) are predicted to 5.1 A, thus recapitulating the difficulties in refining loops in models. By contrast, in control calculations predicting the same loops in crystal structures, the same method reconstructs the loops to an average of 0.5 and 1.4 A for the shorter and longer loops, respectively. We modify the loop prediction method to improve the ability to sample near-native loop conformations in the models, primarily by reducing the sensitivity of the sampling to the loop surroundings, and allowing the other CDR loops to optimize with the H3 loop. The new method improves the average accuracy significantly to 1.3 A RMSD and 3.1 A RMSD for the shorter and longer loops, respectively. Finally, we present results predicting 8-10 residue loops within complete comparative models of five nonantibody proteins. While anecdotal, these mixed, full-model results suggest our approach is a promising step toward more accurately predicting loops in homology models. Furthermore, while significant challenges remain, our method is a potentially useful tool for predicting antibody structures based on a known Fv scaffold.

Dataset Information

Evaluation of model refinement in CASP14.

Publications

Evaluation of model refinement in CASP14.

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