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Using the Newcomb-Benford law to study the association between a country's COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred controversies related to whether countries manipulate reported data for political gains. We study the association between accuracy of reported COVID-19 data and developmental indicators. We use the Newcomb-Benford law (NBL) to gauge data accuracy. We run an OLS regression of an index constructed from developmental indicators (democracy level, gross domestic product per capita, healthcare expenditures, and universal healthcare coverage) on goodness-of-fit measures to the NBL. We find that countries with higher values of the developmental index are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law. The relationship holds for the cumulative number of reported deaths and total cases but is more pronounced for the death toll. The findings are robust for second-digit tests and for a sub-sample of countries with regional data. The NBL provides a first screening for potential data manipulation during pandemics. Our study indicates that data from autocratic regimes and less developed countries should be treated with more caution. The paper further highlights the importance of independent surveillance data verification projects.

SUBMITTER: Balashov VS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8617306 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using the Newcomb-Benford law to study the association between a country's COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development.

Balashov Vadim S VS Yan Yuxing Y Zhu Xiaodi X

Scientific reports 20211125 1

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred controversies related to whether countries manipulate reported data for political gains. We study the association between accuracy of reported COVID-19 data and developmental indicators. We use the Newcomb-Benford law (NBL) to gauge data accuracy. We run an OLS regression of an index constructed from developmental indicators (democracy level, gross domestic product per capita, healthcare expenditures, and universal healthcare coverage) on goodness-of-fit measure ...[more]

PMID: 34824323

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Project description:ImportanceAlthough a growing number of studies have reported negative associations of the COVID-19 pandemic with academic performance among school-aged children, less is known about the pandemic's association with early childhood development.ObjectiveTo examine the association between the COVID-19 pandemic and early childhood development.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study conducted in all accredited nursery centers in a Japanese municipality, baseline surveys of children aged 1 and 3 years (1000 and 922, respectively) were conducted between 2017 and 2019, and participants were followed up for 2 years.ExposureChildren's development was compared at age 3 or 5 years between cohorts that were exposed to the pandemic during the follow-up and a cohort that was not.Main outcome and measureChildren's developmental age was measured by nursery teachers using the Kinder Infant Development Scale (KIDS). Data were analyzed between December 8, 2022, and May 6, 2023.ResultsA total of 447 children (201 girls [45.0%] and 246 boys [55.0%]) aged 1 year at baseline were followed up to age 3 years, and 440 children (200 girls [45.5%] and 240 boys [54.5%]) aged 3 years at baseline were followed up to age 5 years. During the follow-up, the cohorts that were exposed to the pandemic were 4.39 months behind in development at age 5 compared with the cohort that was not (coefficient, -4.39; 95% credible interval, -7.66 to -1.27). Such a negative association was not observed in development at age 3 years (coefficient, 1.32; 95% credible interval, -0.44 to 3.01). Variations in development were greater during the pandemic than before the pandemic regardless of age. Additionally, the quality of care at nursery centers was positively associated with development at age 3 years during the pandemic (coefficient, 2.01; 95% credible interval, 0.58-3.44), while parental depression appeared to amplify the association between the pandemic and delayed development at age 5 (coefficient of interaction, -2.62; 95% credible interval, -4.80 to -0.49; P = .009).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this study showed an association between exposure to the pandemic and delayed childhood development at age 5 years. Variations in development widened during the pandemic regardless of age. It is important to identify children with developmental delays associated with the pandemic and provide them with support for learning, socialization, physical and mental health, and family support.

Project description:This paper presents two comprehensive studies examining how Schwartz's human values dimensions at the country level predict COVID-19 pandemic severity. Study 1 aggregated survey data across 89 countries from the European Social Survey and World Values Survey to assess societal-level conservation versus openness to change (CON-OTC) and self-enhancement versus self-transcendence (SE-ST) value-continuums. Study 2 developed an innovative archival measurement approach using 10 indicators to estimate these value dimensions for over 180 countries. Both studies employed multilevel modeling to test the relationships between country-level values and COVID-19 severity, measured through epidemiological indicators of transmission speed, case fatality rate, infection prevalence and mortality burden. Results revealed that the CON-OTC and SE-ST value-continuums showed consistent, significant negative associations with transmission speed and infection prevalence before adjusting for modernization, latitude, historical pathogen prevalence and government stringency across both studies. However, after accounting for these socioecological and policy covariates, the CON-OTC value-continuum positively predicted case fatality rate in both studies, implying conservation values could increase COVID-19 lethality. In contrast, across both studies, the SE-ST value-continuum negatively predicted case fatality rate after adjusting for the covariates, suggesting countries prioritizing self-enhancement values exhibited relatively lower pandemic severity and lethality when accounting for developmental, ecological, and policy factors. Accordingly, the studies advance theoretical understanding of how country's value priorities shape COVID-19 impact. Methodologically, these studies contribute through multilevel techniques that account for spatial dependencies, as well as an innovative ecological measurement. Overall, this research demonstrates the value of applying Schwartz's framework at a societal level to predict global health crises and pandemics. Highlights • Examined the link between country-level Schwartz's human values and COVID-19 severity in two large-scale studies.• Used archival indicators for innovative assessment of Schwartz's values at the country level.• Employed multilevel modeling for spatial dependencies in regional clusters.• Identified Schwartz's value-continuums impacting COVID-19 severity.• Highlighted the efficacy of Schwartz's values in predicting national pandemic outcomes.

Dataset Information

Using the Newcomb-Benford law to study the association between a country's COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development.

Publications

Using the Newcomb-Benford law to study the association between a country's COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development.

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