Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City.

ABSTRACT: The present analysis uses the data of confirmed incidence of dengue cases in the metropolitan region of Panama from 1999 to 2017 and climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) during the same period to determine if there exists a correlation between these variables. In addition, we compare the predictive performance of two regression models (SARIMA, SARIMAX) and a recurrent neural network model (RNN-LSTM) on the dengue incidence series. For this data from 1999-2014 was used for training and the three subsequent years of incidence 2015-2017 were used for prediction. The results show a correlation coefficient between the climatic variables and the incidence of dengue were low but statistical significant. The RMSE and MAPE obtained for the SARIMAX and RNN-LSTM

SUBMITTER: Navarro Valencia V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8619576 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature