Using GAM functions and Markov-Switching models in an evaluation framework to assess countries' performance in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has initiated several initiatives to better understand its behavior, and some projects are monitoring its evolution across countries, which naturally leads to comparisons made by those using the data. However, most "at a glance" comparisons may be misleading because the curve that should explain the evolution of COVID-19 is different across countries, as a result of the underlying geopolitical or socio-economic characteristics. Therefore, this paper contributes to the scientific endeavour by creating a new evaluation framework to help stakeholders adequately monitor and assess the evolution of COVID-19 in countries, considering the occurrence of spikes, "secondary waves" and structural breaks in the time series.

Methods

Generalized Additive M

SUBMITTER: de Oliveira AMB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8626735 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature