Comparing current and emerging practice models for the extrapolation of survival data: a simulation study and case-study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Estimates of future survival can be a key evidence source when deciding if a medical treatment should be funded. Current practice is to use standard parametric models for generating extrapolations. Several emerging, more flexible, survival models are available which can provide improved within-sample fit. This study aimed to assess if these emerging practice models also provided improved extrapolations.

Methods

Both a simulation study and a case-study were used to assess the goodness of fit of five classes of survival model. These were: current practice models, Royston Parmar models (RPMs), Fractional polynomials (FPs), Generalised additive models (GAMs), and Dynamic survival models (DSMs). The simulation study used a mixture-Weibull model as the data-generating m

SUBMITTER: Kearns B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8627632 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature