Behaviour, booster vaccines and waning immunity: modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era.

ABSTRACT: England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity, and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decl

SUBMITTER: Barnard RC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8629203 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature