The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study.

ABSTRACT: Epidemiological models used to inform government policies aimed to reduce the contagion of COVID-19, assume that the reproduction number is reduced through Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) leading to physical distancing. Available data in the UK show an increase in physical distancing before the NPIs were implemented and a fall soon after implementation. We aimed to estimate the effect of people's behaviour on the epidemic curve and the effect of NPIs taking into account this behavioural component. We have estimated the effects of confirmed daily cases on physical distancing and we used this insight to design a behavioural SEIR model (BeSEIR), simulated different scenaria regarding NPIs and compared the results to the standard SEIR. Taking into account behavioural insights improves

SUBMITTER: Galanis G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8629270 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature