Dataset Information

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study.

ABSTRACT: With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.

SUBMITTER: Camacho OM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8634955 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study.

Camacho Oscar M OM Hill Andrew A Fiebelkorn Stacy S Williams Aaron A Murphy James J

Frontiers in public health 20211116

With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates e ...[more]

PMID: 34869141

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Project description:BackgroundRecent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.Methods and findingsWe present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.ConclusionOur model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

Project description:We investigated the infection dynamics of endosymbiotic bacteria in the developmental course of the mealybugs Planococcus kraunhiae and Pseudococcus comstocki. Molecular phylogenetic analyses identified a betaproteobacterium and a gammaproteobacterium from each of the mealybug species. The former bacterium was related to the beta-endosymbionts of other mealybugs, i.e., "Candidatus Tremblaya princeps," and formed a compact clade in the Betaproteobacteria. Meanwhile, the latter bacterium was related to the gamma-endosymbionts of other mealybugs but belonged to distinct clades in the Gammaproteobacteria. Whole-mount in situ hybridization confirmed the peculiar nested formation in the endosymbiotic system of the mealybugs: the beta-endosymbiont cells were present in the cytoplasm of the bacteriocytes, and the gamma-endosymbiont cells were located in the beta-endosymbiont cells. In nymphal and female development, a large oval bacteriome consisting of a number of bacteriocytes was present in the abdomen, wherein the endosymbionts were harbored. In male development, strikingly, the bacteriome progressively degenerated in prepupae and pupae and became almost unrecognizable in adult males. In the degeneration process, the gamma-endosymbionts disappeared more rapidly than the beta-endosymbionts did. Quantitative PCR analyses revealed that (i) the population dynamics of the endosymbionts in female development reflected the reproductive activity of the insects, (ii) the population dynamics of the endosymbionts were strikingly different between female development and male development, (iii) the endosymbiont populations drastically decreased in male development, and (iv) the gamma-endosymbiont populations decreased more rapidly than the beta-endosymbiont populations in male development. Possible mechanisms underlying the uncoupled regulation of the beta- and gamma-endosymbiont populations are discussed in relation to the establishment and evolution of this unique prokaryote-prokaryote endosymbiotic system.

Project description:Actual use studies play a key part in evaluating the reduced risk potential of tobacco and nicotine products. This study was undertaken to determine the puffing topography, mouth level exposure (MLE) and average daily consumption (ADC) relating to two commercially available tobacco heating products (THPs) and a prototype electronic cigarette (or e-cigarette) among Italian non-mentholated 7 mg ISO tar cigarette smokers. The study was conducted in Milan, Italy, with three groups of approximately 50 participants. Groups 1 and 3 included adult smokers of 7 mg ISO tar tobacco cigarettes, and Group 2 consisted of both solus vapers and dual users of vapour and tobacco products. Amongst smokers, e-cigarette mean puff volumes (41.6 mL vs 41.3 mL) and mean puff durations (1.4 s vs 1.5 s) were similar to that of the cigarette, although the average usage session was significantly longer (1064.8 s vs 289.5 s) with a higher total number of puffs (58.6 vs 17.3), however this may be attributable to differences in product operation. There were no significant differences across puffing topography measurements observed between smokers (Group 1) and regular vapers/dual users (Group 2) when using the e-cigarette. As consistent with previous research, users took, on average, larger mean puff volumes when using a THP compared to the reference cigarette (C651), although puff numbers and puff durations remained similar. The average interval between puffs was considerably shorter for THP1.0(T) compared to THS2.4(T) (11.0 s vs 17.1 s). MLE to nicotine-free dry particulate matter and nicotine was significantly reduced for THP1.0(T) and THS2.4(T) compared to the tobacco cigarette (C651). MLE to nicotine was also significantly reduced for the e-cigarette (IS1.0(T)) compared to C651. The average daily consumption (ADC) of cigarettes by groups 1 and 3 were higher than the respective ADCs of both THP consumables. There were no significant differences in ADC when comparing the same product between different groups. Differences seen between sensory scores for each of the product categories may be attributed to fundamental differences in design and mode of operation resulting in very different characteristics of the aerosol generated.

Dataset Information

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study.

Publications

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study.

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